Rosenberg: the Next Recession Could be 4 Years Away

Talk about a flip in perspective.  David Rosenberg, who had been bearish for years, has turned into one of the biggest bulls on Wall Street.  The Gluskin Sheff analyst now says his recession forecasting model could be pointing to another four years of economic expansion (via a recent note of his):

DR1 DR2

 

That’s pretty interesting.  We know that the probability of a tail risk event increases dramatically inside of a recession.  So if DR is right then that means the macro trend could be higher for several more years to come….

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Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services. He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance and Understanding the Modern Monetary System.

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  • jdogg13

    Then why does the Fed still have its emergency policies (ZIRP/QE) still in place?

  • John Smith

    Merrill’s Rosenberg: A New Bull Market? Are You Out Of Your Mind?
    Henry Blodget
    Apr. 2, 2009, 6:27 AM

    Merrill’s departing economist thinks the S&P will trade between 475 and 650 “for an extended period of time.” That’s 20%-40% below today’s level.

    http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-merrills-rosenberg-a-new-bull-market-are-you-out-of-your-mind-2009-4

  • https://twitter.com/ShervinD Shervin

    Because inflation is low and unemployment is still relatively high. The Fed will also allow inflation to rise higher than its target because they are afraid of prematurely tightening and killing the recovery.

  • Guest

    Well, the stock market doesn’t need a recession to go down, does it?

  • John Daschbach

    Without seeing the DI on the same scale as the LEI it’s impossible to verify the claims. All of this seems like such sophomoric data analysis compared with the state of the art today that all I can conclude is that these are people who make their income by duping others that they have anything valuable to say. I’m sure anyone involved in Chemometrics, Bioinformatics, Econometrics, WebSearch, WebCookies, … is flabbergasted that people in the financial world publish stuff like this and are considered valued members of the community instead of the crackpots they are. Doing this “correctly” has ben the brea and butter of Bioinformatics and Chemometrics for a couple decades. It’s impossible to believe that the real actors in finance are not using these same analysis. Perhaps that what bothers so many people about finance these days.

  • constantnormal

    Sadly, economies and markets are only loosely connected.

  • Willy1964

    Certainly sounds credible. But if Rosie only looks at the LEI &the DI.

  • Willy1964

    The FED does NOT determine interest rates !!! It’s determined by a force called “Mr. Market” and the FED follows the markets.

  • TimeToPanic

    Poor Rosie. Wrong on the way up, and will be wrong on the way down too.

  • mpstrunk

    The FED does determine one interest rate. Its called the FED Funds Rate. It can set this rate at whatever it wants.

  • Willy1964

    No, it doesn’t

  • mpstrunk

    This would be a good question for “Ask Cullen”

  • Willy1964

    Yes, it determines that rate but at the same time it follows the market rate for the 3 month T-bill rate.
    The last time the FED didn’t follow the market rate was in 1981 when Volcker hiked rates by 2%.

  • Willy1964

    No, it isn’t because Cullen also erroneously thinks that the FED determines that rate.

  • Willy1964

    Yellen has already signaled that she WILL (like Volcker) crank up rates, No, NOT because of “Inflation” but in order to defend the US bond market.
    The US has a current Account Deficit and is dependent on the kindness of strangers to fund the federal deficits. and those strangers/foreigners are increasingly unwilling to keep funding the US.
    We saw the same situation in Turkey in january of this year. Turkey is in precisely the same situation as the US is in. Turkey hiked rates in an attempt to defend the turkish lira(/pound ??) & the turkish bond market.

  • Willy1964
  • mpstrunk

    You mean you disagree with Cullen