Home » Market Indicators, Most Recent Stories

SEASONAL TRENDS: WHAT TO EXPECT FOR JUNE

27 May 2011 by Cullen Roche 4 Comments

Another month is just about in the books so the wise market player has to begin thinking a few steps ahead.  Next week will mark the beginning of June, a traditionally lackluster month for the S&P 500.  The always resourceful Stock Trader’s Almanac has the breakdown for the history of June:

  • The “summer rally” in most years is the weakest rally of all four seasons
  • Week after June Triple-Witching Day Dow down 17 of last 19
  • RECENT RECORD: S&P up 10, down 5, average gain 0.1%, ranks seventh
  • Much stronger for NASDAQ, average gain 1.2% last 15 years
  • Watch out for end-of-quarter “portfolio pumping” on last day of June, Dow down 15 of last 21, NASDAQ down 5 straight
  • Pre-presidential election year Junes: #5 S&P & NASDAQ, Dow weaker ranks #7
  • June ends NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months.

Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Bio - Coming Soon.

More Posts - Website

Follow Me:
TwitterYouTube

Disclosures - Unless otherwise noted, authors have no positions in any securities mentioned and readers should never consider this to be investment advice. Always consult your financial advisor before acting on any ideas. Comments Guideline - Readers who denigrate authors or other readers will be banned without warning. This site does not tolerate any sort of reader abuse. The goal of this site is to create an environment that is conducive to learning and better understanding of the monetary system and the investment world. We expect readers to behave maturely and responsibly. We welcome and encourage intense and intelligent discourse, but the site adheres to a strict 1 strike policy. While it is your right to speak freely, it is not your right to behave childishly. Above all else, please enjoy the site. It is intended to be used as an educational tool and we hope the intelligent and mature debate will further that purpose. We hope readers will make an effort to respect that goal. Comments with excessive linking or foul language will be moderated before posting.
Comments
  • El Viejo

    I like the STA. It gives me a good place to start and surely fund managers must use it because even when there are counter prevailing trends the market will often lean towards the seasonal predictions of the STA. It paid off for me this year with oil stocks.

    05/27/2011 at 9:39 AM
  • Jay

    Cullen,

    What do you think of this article on ZH? If I understand correctly, it predicts that we are ultimately headed toward a currency collpase.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-economic-death-spiral-has-been-triggered

    05/28/2011 at 1:07 AM
  • Mike

    Jay,

    Thanks for the link. A very scary analysis that I think you understand correctly. I too would like Cullen’s take on it.

    05/28/2011 at 11:42 AM
  • Roger Ingalls

    Seems like a pretty thorough article.

    I am reminded why I don’t visit ZH much…comments are hyperbolic.

    05/28/2011 at 9:07 PM