SMALL SPECULATORS HAVEN’T BEEN THIS BEARISH SINCE THE MARCH BOTTOM
Due to high demand from our recent post on the Commitment of Traders report, we will begin regularly publishing our data and opinions on the most recent COT reports as they become available from the CFTC.
The latest data from the CFTC shows that small speculators remain overwhelmingly bearish on the markets. The latest net bearish position has only been greater at one point all year – the week of the March 8th bottom. Although this data should not be viewed as an imperfect indicator, it has proven to be prescient this year if used as a contrarian indicator. Small speculators have been wrong about the market for the majority of the year and with a new low reading you have to wonder if sentiment isn’t too bearish again. This could prove particularly bullish when you consider the fact that we believe another quarter of “beat and raise” earnings are just around the corner. Short this market at your own risk….
this information is great, thanks for the post! i will be looking forward to the next one.
The latest data from the CFTC shows that small speculators remain overwhelmingly bearish on the markets.”
Which market commodity or index are you looking at? (S&P, DJI, NASDAQ, etc)
Keep up the good work….COT data can be a bit tricky as one has to understand that the Commercials have very deep pockets and buy long as the market is falling….then sell off when the market reverses up…
Thanks for the chart! I find this info to be useful. Will be looking forward to future updates.
Perhaps small speculators are bearish but they seem to be the only ones. The sentiment indicators are showing both the highest level of bulls and lowest level of bears in a year – with bears chiming in around the teens percent. So yes, maybe this is one small group of bears, but the largest group sentiment wise is very bullish right now.