Anyone who remembers the 2008 election remembers how important the economy and the stock market were in deciding the outcome.  It looks like a similar trend is developing in the 2012 election.

Personally, I am shocked that Obama even has a prayer in this election given the unemployment rate.  I said back in 2009 that the unemployment rate was likely to be over 8% when he was running for re-election and that that would bury his chances.  But boy was I wrong about that.  According to Intrade the President is still the odds on favorite to win the upcoming election at 58%.

But the stock market could change all of that in a heart beat.  I was struck by the chart below showing the Intrade odds of an Obama win versus the S&P 500.  In this “what have you done for me lately world” it seems that the latest stock quote is one of the primary drivers of the well-being of the country and a real-time reflection of the President’s efficacy.   Obviously, this isn’t an entirely rational view of the world and stock prices don’t always reflect our reality, but the data doesn’t lie….


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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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