Some Perspective on the “Can’t Lose” Market

Here are some wild stats about the current rally in the S&P 500 in 2013 which brings the gains to 17%+:

  • Of the twenty weeks this year, just four have been negative weeks.  
  • Of the four negative weeks just one has included a loss over 2%.
  • Of the four negative weeks just two of them included losses over 1%.
  • There have been zero 4%+ corrections this year.
  • The S&P 500 has gained about 0.18% on average per day year to date.
  •  The S&P 500 has traded above its 50 day moving average for 98% of the year.
  • The S&P 500 is 12.8% above its 200 day moving average.
  • The S&P 500 trades at 12.8% or higher from its 200 DMA just 8.3% of the time.
  • Said differently, the market spends 91.7% of its existence BELOW the current levels.
  • Bonus scary fear mongering unimportant corollary:  in 1987 the market shot out of the gates to a 18% gain by May 15.  It rallied another 10% before losing more than all of the annual gains in October during the crash.

There’s some perspective on how incredible this year’s move has been so far.

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Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering asset management, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services. He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance and Understanding the Modern Monetary System.

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