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SOMEONE IS IN A LOT OF PAIN….

17 September 2009 by Cullen Roche 8 Comments

There’s no quit in this bull.  Asia is soaring and U.S. futures point to another new high.  Just wait til jobless claims come in better than expected – then the shorts will really capitulate.  Someone is in a lot of pain out there due to the last 10 trading sessions and it’s not Goldman Sachs.  Round 1 of the hedge funds vs. Goldman Sachs goes to Goldman….

FUT

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Comments
  • Chrispy

    Also, there was a lot of September index straddle activity when the SPX was nearer 1000. Upside breakeven was approximately 1050. Now you haven’t lived if you’ve not experienced the gamma effect of the market trading through your breakeven point so close to expiry on a short option position. I’d add that those that put the trade on haven’t called the level of volatility wrong….but, one of the flaws in the volatility model is that it measures absolute moves, not the direction of moves.

    09/17/2009 at 2:08 AM
  • eh

    I have been effectively short for over a month. Long vix, dollar, etc. My actual equity shorts are very small.

    How about now?

    09/17/2009 at 3:40 AM
  • NZ

    Dear eh,

    Despite being wrong for over a month as of last week the super secret TPC model was only down 2 percent. However as the author was quick to point out that day the market fell on about 3 weeks ago the magic model gained 2.5 percent in 1 day alone.

    So as you see it is an amazing porfolio. Wrong for a month…down 2 percent. Right for a day … up 2.5 percent.

    If only we could all have such a model.

    Waiting eagerly to see the magic model in practice when TPC finally unveils it in a format that can be tracked. Until then… just another website with wonderful but unaudited track record.

    09/17/2009 at 5:47 AM
  • Jeff

    Found this old fortune cookie fortune in my wallet this morning: “a handful of patience is worth more than a bushel of brains”

    09/17/2009 at 6:04 AM
  • Paul

    It’s so bullish, feels odd 1,100 before any pause…..

    09/17/2009 at 6:56 AM
  • Cullen Roche TPC

    The critics come out….You guys didn’t think I would go an entire year without being wrong did you? I’ll update my status soon. Don’t worry, I am perfectly willing to admit being wrong just like I have admitted the many times I’ve been right….

    09/17/2009 at 8:37 AM
  • Cullen Roche TPC

    I should add, no I am not in a lot of pain….Unless pain is a low risk 35% short position and a 65% cash position.

    09/17/2009 at 8:38 AM
  • x

    Its the QUANTS who are getting killed

    09/17/2009 at 1:48 PM