STAT OF THE DAY: 93% OF ANALYSTS EXPECT S&P TO RALLY HIGHER
19 March 2010 by Cullen Roche
13 Comments
As if sentiment wasn’t already starting to get a bit too bullish! The latest compilation of analyst estimates and year-end targets is now calling for substantially higher earnings and equity prices. Of the 13 major banks, JUST ONE (Andrew Garthwaite of Credit Suisse) is calling for the S&P 500 to finish the year below the current level. We’ve covered Garthwaite’s full year outlook and it’s very much in-line with our own – a relatively robust first half and a dicey second half. On the other end of the spectrum is Binky Chadha whose price target sits at 1325.
Firm Strategist 2010 Close 2010 EPS =============================================================== Bank of America David Bianco 1,275 $75.00 Bank of Montreal Ben Joyce 1,225 $74.50 Barclays Barry Knapp 1,210 $71.00 Citigroup Tobias Levkovich 1,175 $76.50 Credit Suisse Andrew Garthwaite 1,125 $77.00 Deutsche Bank Binky Chadha 1,325 $80.80 Goldman Sachs David Kostin 1,250 $76.00 HSBC Garry Evans 1,300 JPMorgan Thomas Lee 1,300 $81.00 Morgan Stanley Jason Todd 1,200 $77.00 Oppenheimer Brian Belski 1,300 $76.00 RBC Myles Zyblock 1,225 $76.00 UBS Thomas Doerflinger 1,250 $81.00 --------------------------------------------------------------- Mean 1,243 $76.82 Median 1,250 $76.25 High 1,325 $81.00 Low 1,125 $71.00 Source: Bloomberg
analyst always draw straight line, that is why the market always overshoot or undershoot…
have a good weekend.
sold all of my longs this morning, and i was 90% long; would love to be long in this yield spread environment but the prospects of obamacare passage, more specifically the extension of the medicare tax to all forms of income, leads me to think there will be a market price adjustment soon, maybe even a black monday if the house deems and approves sunday, and i would just as soon sit that out.
was given a gift by the germans on my euro short, i was just about to cover; now, i can watch monsieur sarkozy and herre (sp?) merkel have a most interesting catfight, while the eminently reasonable mr. p of greece breaks things off and goes to the imf…which i’m thinking will really mess up the euro…worth a bet at least
Our bet was just starting to get exciting. High beta names rolling over hard today.
hadn’t figured in the pelosi factor…hoping for a nice 10% correction as i would be pleased to get back into my beloved financials…
Welcome to the dark side.
why i don’t like the dark side (from soros):
“First, there is an asymmetry in the risk/reward ratio between being long or short in the stock market… Being long has unlimited potential on the upside but limited exposure on the downside. Being short is the reverse. The asymmetry manifests itself in the following way: losing on a long position reduces one’s risk exposure while losing on a short position increases it. As a result, one can be more patient being long and wrong than being short and wrong. The asymmetry serves to discourage the short-selling of stocks.”
I too share your concern over this comming weekends events.
Chris — I mentioned 3 wks ago that financials were underperforming since the Jan2010 low.
JPM just can’t break resistance–This is a Concern for the Bull
I love this Bank–its a beautifull bank–Bankrupt/Underfunded but still beautifull
contrary to TPC’s position that JPM is the Evil Empire!
Also posted the probability that the S&P would challenge the 1275-1300 range in the next 6 mo.
This would have to be reconsidered with the passage of the Health Care bill–which is a negative for profits going forward
financials have been smoking last 6 weeks; see http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/3/19/todays-sector-performance.html
as i type this, stupak says he’s voting for passage, so obamacare will pass; while i think this is a step in the right direction, social policy wise, it will upset markets at least in the short term.
Tell me that most analysts don’t have an incentive to talk this market up!
Earnings for the S&P 500 will rise 15% from $57 in 2009 to $65-66 in 2010 falling short of analyst estimates by $12-13 or 16%. Will it matter?
Before you answer, it didn’t matter in 2009 as 2009 earnings came in well below previous estimates and were revised down all year.
In time it should.
Just want to see if China and Germany want to push deflation.
If that’s the case, then watch out below.
Tpc
i still believe we are going to 1250+ by May or June. I am looking at 1130-1140 to get long. Probably middle of next week. I think this next move up may get to 1230 with a 6-8% correction around mid April. Good blog by the way.
Everyone so far in these comments have been on the conservative side for a correction, haven’t seen any 15-20% correction estimates which I feel is more likely since we have not had even 10% since March 09.