Comments on: “STOCK PRICES ARE GOING TO FALL HARD” http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard Sat, 26 May 2012 02:09:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: TPC http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2207 TPC Fri, 19 Jun 2009 05:37:56 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2207 Rob, I'd be interested in knowing what they were saying in early march as well. If you find any data please send it my way. Thanks and nice comments! Rob,

I’d be interested in knowing what they were saying in early march as well. If you find any data please send it my way. Thanks and nice comments!

]]> By: Rob http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2205 Rob Fri, 19 Jun 2009 05:16:13 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2205 Does anyone know what Glenn Neely (#1 market timer mentioned by "E" in the comments) and Trimtabs were predicting at the end of February / first week of March? Did they predict an interim bottom of the S&P500 around 700 and a snapback rally? What were they saying in late summer 2007 and late summer 2008? I sold almost all my stock between July and October 2007. I bought some between November 2008 and March 2009, but not will real conviction. I sold a good part of my new stock in late April and early May. I have been second guessing myself ever since. I see the S&P500 as fairly valued bewteen 700 and 750, or maybe 800 if earnings improve rapidly. I think any move signficantly higher would be based on wishful thinking (and would draw renewed interest of short-sellers) while at the same time a crash below 700 would need a currently unforeseen shock. Does anyone know what Glenn Neely (#1 market timer mentioned by “E” in the comments) and Trimtabs were predicting at the end of February / first week of March? Did they predict an interim bottom of the S&P500 around 700 and a snapback rally? What were they saying in late summer 2007 and late summer 2008?

I sold almost all my stock between July and October 2007. I bought some between November 2008 and March 2009, but not will real conviction. I sold a good part of my new stock in late April and early May. I have been second guessing myself ever since. I see the S&P500 as fairly valued bewteen 700 and 750, or maybe 800 if earnings improve rapidly. I think any move signficantly higher would be based on wishful thinking (and would draw renewed interest of short-sellers) while at the same time a crash below 700 would need a currently unforeseen shock.

]]> By: Shanky http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2202 Shanky Fri, 19 Jun 2009 04:00:32 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2202 Very nice post TPC. Visit every day, but rarely leave comments. Link to your work quite often in my posts. Really appreciate your diligence and quality. Thanks for your hard work. Shanky. Very nice post TPC. Visit every day, but rarely leave comments. Link to your work quite often in my posts. Really appreciate your diligence and quality. Thanks for your hard work.

Shanky.

]]> By: samiam6 http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2200 samiam6 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 02:12:47 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2200 good stuff. anyone who bloviates the bullish party line that there is a ton of cash on the sidelines just waiting to be invested obviously hasn't considered the gobs of public offerings going on lately. yes, the markets ably absorbed all of these new shares, but one has to think the market is saturated and susceptible to weakness going forward. good stuff. anyone who bloviates the bullish party line that there is a ton of cash on the sidelines just waiting to be invested obviously hasn’t considered the gobs of public offerings going on lately. yes, the markets ably absorbed all of these new shares, but one has to think the market is saturated and susceptible to weakness going forward.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2167 TPC Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:30:27 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2167 By the way, I responded to E personally, but all readers should know that you shouldn't feel obligated to leave your real email address and that I never ever distribute email addresses for any reason.... TPC By the way, I responded to E personally, but all readers should know that you shouldn’t feel obligated to leave your real email address and that I never ever distribute email addresses for any reason….

TPC

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2166 TPC Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:54:55 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2166 bzik, Great question. According to their website their model portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 substantially (140% vs -5% since 2000), but the data is not up to date. That's the best performance data I can find. The argument makes sense though and it appears prudent to me to be taking chips off the table at this point. There are just too many question markets in the near-term. bzik,

Great question. According to their website their model portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 substantially (140% vs -5% since 2000), but the data is not up to date. That’s the best performance data I can find. The argument makes sense though and it appears prudent to me to be taking chips off the table at this point. There are just too many question markets in the near-term.

]]> By: bzik http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2165 bzik Thu, 18 Jun 2009 15:34:00 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2165 TPC, do you have any data on how good TrimTabs calls were in the past? Would be very interesting to know... TPC, do you have any data on how good TrimTabs calls were in the past? Would be very interesting to know…

]]> By: E http://pragcap.com/stock-prices-are-going-to-fall-hard/comment-page-1#comment-2156 E Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:24:35 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5414#comment-2156 #1 market timer also says same http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm what will unfold and when is the question............... (tpc, you dont distribute my email address do you, spam has been up lately) #1 market timer also says same

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm

what will unfold and when is the question……………

(tpc, you dont distribute my email address do you, spam has been up lately)

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