Comments on: STRATEGY UPDATE – HEDGE, HEDGE & HEDGE

By: bzik

bzik — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 02:48:09 +0000

market changes mood every day what poor TCP to do? just follow the market
By the way, TheChartist recommended 100% cash couple of weeks ago just to recommend 100% invested today. I guess lots of people were watching head/shoulders too carefully and got fooled by it

By: prescient11

prescient11 — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 01:52:25 +0000

Yeah TPC, I thought you said you were going neutral at 870?? Did you say jump on the bull train, I must have missed that.

By: TPC

TPC — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:04:41 +0000

Bzik,

I am still bullish, but throwing on some hedges here to protect from any downside. We’ve had a great run since last week so I am not getting greedy. You can call me bullish, but less so….

As for Buffett, he is still generate incredible cash flows from Berkshire. The losses in his portfolio matter little to him over the near-term.

By: Greedsgood

Greedsgood — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:35:42 +0000

I’m hedging with specific sector etf bear put spreads – XRT, SRS, EEV

So where is the next leg up going to come from? Technology is topping out. Oil is over-extended.

My theory is that we’ll need new sector leadership to keep this rally intact. If we don’t see strength in a new sector such as basic materials or health care, the market is toast. Hence, I’m also long UYG & XLV. I can see potential mega-cap multiple expansion as a market catalyst as well and am using DDM to capture that potential outperformance.

By: bzik

bzik — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:16:34 +0000

sorry for the double post, i made a typo and was not able to cancel it on time. I ment “he” must follow his own rules. Kinda hard when you are invested heavily in insurance and banks and those crashed. Also, he was saved by the GS free gov money too, otherwise his stake was down 50% at some point and who knows if it was not gonig to 0.
Anyway, did not you said just yesterday or day before that you are slightly bullish? Did you changed your position? Sorry to ask, it is notevery day that i read your blog so sometimes the change in posture can be visible.

By: bzik

bzik — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:10:44 +0000

Warren Buffett’s first rule of investing is “don’t ever lose money”. His second rule is “don’t ever forget rule #1.”
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i wish he followed his own “rules”, it is easy to make up rules and much harder to follow them which is proved by his investments in recent years

By: bzik

bzik — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 17:10:29 +0000

Warren Buffett’s first rule of investing is “don’t ever lose money”. His second rule is “don’t ever forget rule #1.”
———————
i wish you followed his own “rules”, it is easy to make up rules and much harder to follow them which is proved by his investments in recent years

By: Dean

Dean — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:24:07 +0000

Interesting Price-Volume relationship:

http://dshort.com/charts/bears/price-and-volume-large.gif

By: AWF

AWF — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 16:11:49 +0000

TPC: As I noted this weekend we are going to have a strong up-move in the market this week–Why is the question–we can say the market has discounted all the bad news and “Less Bad” has been rationalized to GOOD !–we can look a CNBC,Fox Bloomberg TV –”Green Shouts” everywhere–this Perception is the Trade. Larry,”Curly” Geitner and “Mo” Volker backed up by “Bubbles” Bernanke—what in the world are you so worried about?? —and last but not least as you said– lot of big-money on the sidelines they don’t want to be left at the station!! This is not a “roaring” Bull move this is a “snorting” Bull move–as I mentioned this market remindes me of 1987 from a Perception standpoint–what you are seeing is a blow-off rally in a secular “Bear Market”–Green Shouts,Green Houses,Green Cars,pretty soon we will all be pooping green!

By: Tyler

Tyler — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:51:10 +0000

TPC,

Appreciate the inclusion of and suggestions for the smaller investor. Very helpful.

Thanks.