THE CAN’T LOSE MARKET
16 September 2009 by Cullen Roche
13 Comments
I believe a reader yesterday summed up this market well: “This rally is never ending. Just buy something. ANYTHING”.
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Comments
What if?
What if all the bad news we read here and everywhere else, and talked about on Bloomberg TV about stuff like CReal Estate, ghost condos, ghost “fleets”, increasing foreclosures and credit card default rates, cancelled or delayed aircraft orders, an expected multiyear slump in luxury goods like diamonds, etc.
What if they have all been priced in by March this year?
This train may have left the station and the next one … is there a next one anytime soon?
Barton Biggs said going to 1,250 from here, a doulble from March mor or less. We know Main street and Wall street are 2 different beasts. How low will USD go, anyone, implications?
Just hope for all our sakes USD does not go below 71.
Hi Eric, what could happen if USD < 71? Thanks in advance.
Paul,
There is no floor. Currency exchange relies even more heavily on technicals than equities (to the extent any analysis matters at all anymore), and a break < 71 would indicate the dollar can keep falling to nowhere. Not good. You won't be able to buy bupkis, but your 401(k) statement will look good.
Declining Dollar is great for the Stockmarket, Gold ,Oil,Commodities.
A Declining Dollar REFLATES this economy.
A Declining Dollar helped the latest Retail Sales report because of inflation not because of unit sales growth.
A Declining Dollar makes US goods Cheaper to the World.
Whats not to like about a declining Dollar?
The Question remains ” Can the US inflate/pay our way out of Debt???
To echo Hossein above, I am starting to feel like this market can’t go down, or maybe won’t be allowed to go down. Volume keeps declining but stocks continue to go up. Insiders keep selling but stocks continue to go up. Economics have stabilized but we have zero organic growth but stocks continue to go up. Maybe Bernanke has achieved his objective of printing our way out of this mess? Maybe all the primary dealers and banks are just trading amongst themselves with all the cash from Uncle Ben? Maybe they have a mandate to keep the market up because a crashing market hurts Joe Six-Pack psychology? Maybe inflation will be here much sooner than expected? Obama has so much on his plate that he can’t afford to have the market crashing as well. I am not advocating going long at these prices but I don’t see any near-term impetus for the market falling again. Fundamentals haven’t mattered for 6 months – why would they start mattering now? Frustrating but it is what it is.
I do see the market go down significantly. Sooner or later, the fundamentals will catch on. That’s of course, if the Fed keeps doing what they are doing.
Goldman’s 1,060 is history, almost 60% from March. Will Goldman revise to 1,250 like Barton Brigg’s 100%.
What happened to all that talk about the Fed’s need to prick asset bubbles? We forget so quickly. That was nine months ago. Looks like the Fed’s just fine with yet another bubble.
AWF
A declining dollar wipes out the middle class and reaks havoc on the lower class.
Chris-DUH. I have been saying that for months, and people just said I was a conspiracy theorist by saying the markets are manipulated to go up and down by the government(s). But no, no no. We are in a free market. BS. The government caused markets to tank early this year, and they caused it to increase by 60% this year. If they need to, they can make it go down again if treasury rates are getting too high and they can’t print money anymore because foreigners are getting pissed.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is a complete moron. Thankfully more and more people are getting aware of how the government manipulates everything, from the markets to the news.
The most bullish indicator was when Bernanke said he would print money to buy treasuries. That means they don’t need all the fear and panic that they needed before to keep rates low.
Eric said:
AWF: A declining dollar wipes out the middle class and reaks havoc on the lower class.
Eric: There are 35 million people on food stamps –probably close to 20% unemployment if everyone’s counted– Do you think they are worried about the Dollar? They are worried about a job–If a declining dollar helps increase the mfg base and export sales then i’m for it—But this is a dangerous game that “Bubbles Ben ” and the 3 stooges are playing!