THE CHASE FOR YIELD IS ON
By Walter Kurtz, Sober Look
The US high yield (HY) market is starting to look somewhat frothy. We’ve had over $7 billion of fund inflows this month with $2.5 billion this week alone. Of the $2.5bn, roughly $1.5bn went into HY mutual funds and $1bn into HY ETFs. That compares to about half a billion into mortgage-backed bond funds and $700mm into muni funds (according to EPFR Global). With the Fed on hold for a while, investors are chasing yield.
For HYG (HY ETF) for example, the growth in the number of shares has been unprecedented, and the ETF again now trades at a 2% premium.
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| HYG Shares Outstanding (Bloomberg) |
One can also see rising risk appetite in the HY primary market as well. Some new issues that hit the market are quite risky. For example Realogy, a company that nobody would look at a month ago, comfortably sold new bonds.
LCD News: Realogy’s return to market was met with strong demand, with both tranches of secured notes pricing tight to talk, and the paper is volatile this morning in post-break trading. The 9% intermediate-lien notes due 2020, for instance, are pegged at 100/100.25 in the Street, against a break around 101 and trades earlier this morning at 100.375, according to sources. Pricing was at par.
Realogy’s 7.625% notes due 2020 also priced at par, and this morning’s markets are generally at 100.5/101, sources said. Meanwhile, the previously outstanding 11.5% exchange notes due 2017 are trading at 95.75 this morning, versus 95 yesterday but 90 before the new issue hit the market, trade data show.
The company is highly leveraged and is extremely vulnerable to economic shocks. (For those interested in learning more about Realogy’s “distressed” past, read thisexcellent post).
Spreads are still above last summer’s lows and the fundamentals are strong, but we could easily see a pullback in this market.
We could “easily see a pullback” in any market,doesn’t really clarify much other than hugh yield has rallied just like equity.No surprise there. Simlpe fact is with rates likely down for a couple of more years many people just cannot generate enough income any other way. Shy of a major recession money should keep being allocated in this sector simply because it will have become a larger allocation in many portfolios relative to it’s historic placement for the reasons already given…call it the ‘baby boomer’ put
Isn;t this the same voodoo that got us in trouble last time? Tampering with the risk free rate and trying to fool investors into questionable decisions?
Time to go long Treasuries ?? (when the shit hits the fan ??)
I am long on long-term Treasuries at 3.06%. Although they yield a whole lot less than junk bonds (high yield), long Treasuries (TLT) continue to perform very well, and are holding up well even after this equity and junk rally. 10% in TLT is a good hedge against a falling equity market and/or another flare up in the European crisis. I also hold LQD which is mostly BBB corporates, but I’m very light on junk bonds right now. Econ situation is too fragile, and they could easily hit an air pocket now. Yes, be prepared for when the shit hits the fan