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THE COMING BLACK SWANS OF THE 2010 FINANCIAL MARKETS

17 December 2009 by Cullen Roche 6 Comments

German bunds to fall 2.25%, the VIX to fall to 14, and gold to fall to $870 an ounce are just some of the ‘outrageous predictions’ Saxo Bank made for next year. Christian Blaabjerg from Saxo Bank told CNBC the forecasts are “the Black Swans of the financial markets” and “we somehow point toward these as more structural factors.”


Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

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Comments
  • jt26

    The financial equivalent of the “worst dressed list of 200X”.

  • The full 10 claims and a interview with chief economist David Karsbøl is available on http://www.tradingfloor.com/en/pages/outrageous-claims.aspx

  • The full 10 claims and a interview with chief economist David Karsbøl is available on tge Trading Floor website

  • Bruer

    On this list I note two items:

    *American public to form third party in the US
    *US Social Security Trust Fund to go bust

    It is arguable if Treasury Geithner is following a mission Henry Paulson began. All that aside, word is that with regard to Health Care, U.S.Department of Treasury is moving to use the “Treasury Offset Program” to take money from civilians by surcharging a debt the Treasury will claim is due, relating minimum payment, or non-payment of Health Care. What it means is that, Treasury under Obama, is going to start dipping into Social Security accounts to take money, in order to finance Health Care.

    http://www.dfas.mil/civilianpay/debts/administrativetreasuryoffsetprogram.html

    Sort of gives new meaning to “change” you can believe in. *Insert cheeky Presidential smile here*

    • Bruer

      Behind the cheeky Presidential smiles of Bush/Obama, is the health care lobby and bank industry lobby. They are trying to get the Treasury into the business of leveraging dept, against people’s social security, and there you have money going out from those accounts, into large corporations that benefit from their association to the Government.

      (((Think executives who are never held accountable when their firms are insolvent, irresponsible boards of directors at large banks, and insurance firms that are easily gutted, and left for dead unless the government brings in money to re-inflate them. Add to that mix large health care firms, and ravenous compensation committees who continually push boards of directors to pay higher salary and lavish bonus awards on executives for sub-standard work; and that even in down economic cycles or when company is going bankrupt, that executives should get paid their bonus! Add to that anti-capitalist who populate compensation committees, more than willing to destroy contract law, as basis for large corporations dumping their dept off on the public who did not sign for that debt, and a few months later, are found, reconstructing contract law, and invoking contract law as basis for paying out gargantuan bonuses. Add to that irresponsible, indulgent hoard of lobbyists contaminating both Presidential Cabinets, who like to privatize gains and socialize debts. Add to that people in large banking, who when their corporations fail, knee-jerk-reaction, like to draw senior citizens into a role of accountability, to save them from being responsible or accountable. Here you see Harvard Business and Dartmouth graduates, craven with indulgence, non-capitalistic-weird-idealists, depraved in making heroins of people who abuse our senior culture. This has been a repeat pattern of abuse since the Savings and Loan Crisis: Anti-american plus faux capitalist who privatize corporate gains and socialize losses. Do not hold executives accountable for dishonesty and abuse in financial matters.)))

      And of course, behind the banking contingent in D.C. you have to have financial experts from GS, JPM, and large banking industry to managing the funds and flow of funds. To spin heroic the deeds of the Treasury and Federal reserve who oversee these large institutions, and also say they regret bailing out firms like AIG, oops had to do it…

      The lobbying groups behind both Presidents: They are moving the Treasury to create a debt, on paper notices, widely distributed in predatorial fashion, on targeted segments of the civil population (who don’t make a lot to begin with). In this way create wealth for the wealthy and the czars who monitor this cash flow from social security to corporations.

      They are going to do this, whether people use health care or not. They are going to use “health care reform” as the excuse to prise open, access to those funds. Then once they open the lid a little, it will only be a matter of time before we see another pig’s breakfast like we see now and in fall of 2008. (We did not see it coming, we need money, take out debts, bring in the lobby of corporate compensation experts to say how the bonus pay is sacrid when a company is undercapitalized or extremely undercapitalized or insolvent. We need money, oh and by the way, we are not going to show you any of the employment contracts for executives who ruined these large corporations – just going to bathe them in a upswing in bonus pool larger than in prior 5 years – whoops.)

      It will only be a matter of time before you see people like Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein, commissioning books on how wonderful they are or their firm is. If it has not happened yet, they will be expressing contempt for middle America and sub-prime segments of the society, in order to make hero worship of people at the Federal reserve who quickly sign off on metric changes that skew and conceal things like, cost of living increases (ie: cost of living is suppressed in relation to dramatic swings in oil, fomented by GS ‘special reports’ calling for a 200$ spike in trading paper units of oil).

      Somebody has to administer the money flowing from the same sub-prime sector, only now dealing with health care “reform.” – Do you think they are going to let Joe Plummer monitor his own health care at that point?

      *Insert cheeky Presidential smile here*

  • Bruer

    TPC, you might want to save the link for in a few years people wonder in here to look for some insight into what has just been done to them… http://www.dfas.mil/civilianpay/frequentlyaskquestions/administrativeoffsetfaqs.html

    “1. I was never advised of a debt to the Government. Why did you take my tax refund?”

    You can say, remember all that guy Tim Geithner who has retired in the Bahamas? Well he was working under another guy, a former CEO at GoldmanSachs, Inc, Henry Paulson. If you don’t know who they are, you can still see their signature on dollar bills printed between 2006-2010 …

    We had a discussion about this on Pragmatic Capitalist some years ago. … Here are some links you might find helpful …

    To answer your question, these guys sort of took advantage of the sub-prime market and then when they extracted as much wealth as they could get out of that market, quickly moved the money sucking funnel, over to exploit the low-class in health care… True predators in lending and health care.

    Such persons are celebrated at firms like JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs, so you might have a tough time getting them to talk about such things. The time to have raised hell was back in 2009 when the Health Care Bill was being influenced heavily by the money firms like GS got from bank bailouts and routed immediately into lobbying groups in Washington. You know what they said, got to keep the “talent” on at the firm.

    Good luck getting your money back, Joe Plummer – looks like your class got hit over the head by the banking industry – double whammy style. Its like they put a bag over your head, ganged up to hit you, then took the bag off and asked you to guess who it was that just kicked you?