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THE “DASH FOR TRASH” MEANS STOCKS COULD FALL 20%

24 August 2009 by Cullen Roche 6 Comments

We have often referred to the current stock rally as a garbage rally.  The low quality of the rally has been extreme in its nature as low quality high spec names substantially outperform high quality names.  Several of these low quality names are part of what CNBC refers to as the “1,000% club” – a club that surely represents the speculative times.  Hedge fund manager Nick Bullman says the market is grossly overvalued after investors have driven up the market:

LONDON (Reuters) – Speculation rather than economic fundamentals has driven this year’s sharp rally in stocks, and equities may now be 20 percent overpriced, said the managing partner at hedge fund firm Bullman Investment Management.

Nick Bullman, who told Reuters he has this week placed bets on falling share prices, is concerned that government stimulus packages have not revived bank lending as much as hoped and that conditions remain as tough for companies as they did last year.

“The rally has been a ‘dash for trash’ based on speculation … On Wednesday (I) went short on the S&P (500) and financials via ETFs (exchange-traded funds),” he said in an interview on Friday.

“Stocks that were on their knees have risen to pre-Lehman levels, but the fundamentals haven’t changed at all. Credit card debt in the U.S. is getting worse. I think the U.S. equity market is potentially up to 20 percent overvalued over the short term.”

Source: Reuters

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Comments
  • Dean

    This reminds me a Beatles song..”it has taken so long to find out, but we could find out”:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fkObqE7IDU

  • jenny

    Amazing kid! wish my son would spend time playing music insstead of computer games.

  • gregg

    With Obama’s announcement that he will reappoint Bernanke tomorrow (according to Bloomberg), I don’t suspect the downturn will start tomorrow. For a market that needs no reason to rally, that should give it a big boost.

  • James

    The time is near for a little fall down. As Sanford always said in ‘Sanford and Son” “you a tiuhd ole’ bat!”…Anyway, that could be said for the markets right now.

  • Brian

    There are a lot of market lessons to learn from ol’ Fred Sanford. For example, how many times have we seen this market fake “the big one” so that it could get its way (move higher)? In fact you could say that Bernanke is peddling the equivilent junk (in stocks) Fred was and it will likely get him about as far (no offense to junk dealers of the world).

  • lasr

    Like the dying man’s last gasp breath, market reaction to Bernanke news could be the last gasp for this rally!