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	<title>Comments on: THE EXPECTATION RATIO HITS A TWO YEAR HIGH</title>
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		<title>By: GreenAB</title>
		<link>http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-hits-a-new-high/comment-page-1#comment-7540</link>
		<dc:creator>GreenAB</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 10:49:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragcap.com/?p=11107#comment-7540</guid>
		<description>83% of companies beat so far.

one has to ask - what morons are doing research on companies, how do those highly educated analysts deserve their money?

i´m pretty sure analysts aren´t that dumb at all. they underestimate with a purpose, perhaps they were told to do so.

wall street was staring at the abyss.
and they know that the whole system (=their job) can only survive when you can manufacture a sustained rally.
major part of that game is to play with market expectations = keep estimates as low as possible.

i´m curious how long it will take until the market has finally figured that out.

look at the charts of all those hyped &quot;blowout&quot; earnings (AA, INTC, JPM ...) and what happened to the days following the earnings release.

there is a pattern of &quot;sell the spike&quot; emerging.
i attribute that to 

a)selling on news, since (smart) major participants weren´t surprised at all by those earnings beats.

b)HFT programs provide huge liquidity at the day of the surprise (remember: they make money by doing as much trades as possible). but the day after they withdraw in part from the stock and head over to the next hot earnings play.
speculative market participants who bought into the spike are suddenly confronted with much lower volume and have to sell to lower bids.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>83% of companies beat so far.</p>
<p>one has to ask &#8211; what morons are doing research on companies, how do those highly educated analysts deserve their money?</p>
<p>i´m pretty sure analysts aren´t that dumb at all. they underestimate with a purpose, perhaps they were told to do so.</p>
<p>wall street was staring at the abyss.<br />
and they know that the whole system (=their job) can only survive when you can manufacture a sustained rally.<br />
major part of that game is to play with market expectations = keep estimates as low as possible.</p>
<p>i´m curious how long it will take until the market has finally figured that out.</p>
<p>look at the charts of all those hyped &#8220;blowout&#8221; earnings (AA, INTC, JPM &#8230;) and what happened to the days following the earnings release.</p>
<p>there is a pattern of &#8220;sell the spike&#8221; emerging.<br />
i attribute that to </p>
<p>a)selling on news, since (smart) major participants weren´t surprised at all by those earnings beats.</p>
<p>b)HFT programs provide huge liquidity at the day of the surprise (remember: they make money by doing as much trades as possible). but the day after they withdraw in part from the stock and head over to the next hot earnings play.<br />
speculative market participants who bought into the spike are suddenly confronted with much lower volume and have to sell to lower bids.</p>
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		<title>By: TPC</title>
		<link>http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-hits-a-new-high/comment-page-1#comment-7467</link>
		<dc:creator>TPC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:14:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragcap.com/?p=11107#comment-7467</guid>
		<description>Here&#039;s a two year chart.  It&#039;s a bit dated, but you can see the deterioration in the earnings environment pretty clearly....  &lt;a href=&quot;http://pragcap.com/early-earnings-analysis&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://pragcap.com/early-earnings-analysis&lt;/a&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here&#8217;s a two year chart.  It&#8217;s a bit dated, but you can see the deterioration in the earnings environment pretty clearly&#8230;.  <a href="http://pragcap.com/early-earnings-analysis" rel="nofollow">http://pragcap.com/early-earnings-analysis</a></p>
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		<title>By: JD Swampfox</title>
		<link>http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-hits-a-new-high/comment-page-1#comment-7466</link>
		<dc:creator>JD Swampfox</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:03:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragcap.com/?p=11107#comment-7466</guid>
		<description>Can we please see how this expectation ratio tracks with the S&amp;P over a longer period of time?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Can we please see how this expectation ratio tracks with the S&amp;P over a longer period of time?</p>
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		<title>By: James</title>
		<link>http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-hits-a-new-high/comment-page-1#comment-7366</link>
		<dc:creator>James</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 08:53:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://pragcap.com/?p=11107#comment-7366</guid>
		<description>I agree.  And the Q3 GDP should really put icing on the cake.  But I definitely think upside is limited for the year.  We have like...10%-12% more upside from 1100 S&amp;P for this year.  That is tops in my opinion.  I am still looking for an under 1000 S&amp;P to be printed sometime after which is a pretty significant downtrend from 1200 in this market.  I agree with you that shorting now isn&#039;t the best strategy, and if you do, then don&#039;t margin yourself, go all in, have a very short time frame and definitely don&#039;t use options...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree.  And the Q3 GDP should really put icing on the cake.  But I definitely think upside is limited for the year.  We have like&#8230;10%-12% more upside from 1100 S&amp;P for this year.  That is tops in my opinion.  I am still looking for an under 1000 S&amp;P to be printed sometime after which is a pretty significant downtrend from 1200 in this market.  I agree with you that shorting now isn&#8217;t the best strategy, and if you do, then don&#8217;t margin yourself, go all in, have a very short time frame and definitely don&#8217;t use options&#8230;</p>
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