Comments on: THE EXPECTATION RATIO SURGES TO A NEW 2 YEAR HIGH http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high Sun, 12 Feb 2012 13:32:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: James http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8155 James Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:35:38 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8155 TPC, you did make the right call to take things off the table. I think you have a very intuitive streak in you, and you could be very very rich if you were more aggressive. But if that isn't your style then that is okay too. I still like this blog for the news you post if you become more aggressive or not and come here many times a day. In any case, I am not going to nit pick as you said, I've already said my peace. I still don't think this is THE downward spiral. I say we see over 1100 S&P shortly for a bounce. Stocks are still technically and fundamentally weak but we are still in a strong bear market rally and this down trend will be bought up soon enough... TPC, you did make the right call to take things off the table. I think you have a very intuitive streak in you, and you could be very very rich if you were more aggressive. But if that isn’t your style then that is okay too. I still like this blog for the news you post if you become more aggressive or not and come here many times a day. In any case, I am not going to nit pick as you said, I’ve already said my peace. I still don’t think this is THE downward spiral. I say we see over 1100 S&P shortly for a bounce. Stocks are still technically and fundamentally weak but we are still in a strong bear market rally and this down trend will be bought up soon enough…

]]> By: Octopus http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8152 Octopus Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:45:09 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8152 I am a regular reader since a few weeks and I think TPC is a very useful website, every call is reasoned out, also I like the very patient and prudent way he manages the positions. Under certain aspects I have a similar way to trade the mkts with multiple positions, mainly on European indexes, FX, and IR future. I am a regular reader since a few weeks and I think TPC is a very useful website, every call is reasoned out, also I like the very patient and prudent way he manages the positions. Under certain aspects I have a similar way to trade the mkts with multiple positions, mainly on European indexes, FX, and IR future.

]]> By: EL http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8147 EL Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:05:47 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8147 If it was so easy and we could always make the right call, we certainly would not be spending time collectively educating ourselves. If it was so easy and we could always make the right call, we certainly would not be spending time collectively educating ourselves.

]]> By: HankB http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8137 HankB Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:25:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8137 I don't know why people try to tear down TPC's calls. This has to be one of the most informative and honest market websites I have ever seen. We should all be thanking TPC for his efforts and honesty even if his market calls suck. I for one just want to say thanks TPC. I don’t know why people try to tear down TPC’s calls. This has to be one of the most informative and honest market websites I have ever seen. We should all be thanking TPC for his efforts and honesty even if his market calls suck.

I for one just want to say thanks TPC.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8136 TPC Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:21:43 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8136 Entirely INTO cash in the equity portion.... Entirely INTO cash in the equity portion….

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8135 TPC Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:21:21 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8135 I don't disagree, but we're certainly nit picking here. I was pretty clear about my Yen and C$ short as well as moving entirely out of cash. However you want to describe that is fine by me. Bearish, neutral, etc. I describe it as "right". Thanks for compliments everyone and thanks for keeping me honest. I don’t disagree, but we’re certainly nit picking here. I was pretty clear about my Yen and C$ short as well as moving entirely out of cash.

However you want to describe that is fine by me. Bearish, neutral, etc. I describe it as “right”.

Thanks for compliments everyone and thanks for keeping me honest.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8134 TPC Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:18:54 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8134 Thanks EL. I honestly don't mean to mislead. I have been very wrong before and call myself out for it. I was in cash from SP 950 all the way to SP 1050. I liked nat gas earlier this year. I bought the dollar when I moved out of stocks at SP 950. I've been lucky to be correct far more times than I've been wrong, however. But trying to imply that my latest move out of stocks is in some way wrong or misleading is totally incorrect. Thanks EL. I honestly don’t mean to mislead. I have been very wrong before and call myself out for it. I was in cash from SP 950 all the way to SP 1050. I liked nat gas earlier this year. I bought the dollar when I moved out of stocks at SP 950. I’ve been lucky to be correct far more times than I’ve been wrong, however.

But trying to imply that my latest move out of stocks is in some way wrong or misleading is totally incorrect.

]]> By: Exertia http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8133 Exertia Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:16:59 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8133 TPC, first of all let me say that I'm a great supporter of your blog and it provides a condensed view of Wall St and expert opinions, as well as your analysis and calls and is one of the best sources of market and economy related information for me. But I would say I have to agree with some of the above comments that your call the other day was not bearish but merely neutral. Fact is, I have been patiently waiting till you issue your bearish call so that I can pile up on all the shorts that I have been watching shoot up since the last few days while I have been on the sidelines. In the interests of everyone concerned, it would greatly help if you could just put a small table at the top of your blog which would give your short-, mid- and long-term outlook on stocks, currencies, bonds and anything else that you care about. Just a simple "underweight / neutral / overweight" or "buy / hold / sell" signal that serves as a guidepost for people following your blog and preferably the date you made that call (that cannot change ex post facto). Not only will that enable your calls to be judged in a better light, but more people will click the donate button that you will place conveniently below it :-) Thanks and keep up the good work! TPC, first of all let me say that I’m a great supporter of your blog and it provides a condensed view of Wall St and expert opinions, as well as your analysis and calls and is one of the best sources of market and economy related information for me.

But I would say I have to agree with some of the above comments that your call the other day was not bearish but merely neutral. Fact is, I have been patiently waiting till you issue your bearish call so that I can pile up on all the shorts that I have been watching shoot up since the last few days while I have been on the sidelines.

In the interests of everyone concerned, it would greatly help if you could just put a small table at the top of your blog which would give your short-, mid- and long-term outlook on stocks, currencies, bonds and anything else that you care about.

Just a simple “underweight / neutral / overweight” or “buy / hold / sell” signal that serves as a guidepost for people following your blog and preferably the date you made that call (that cannot change ex post facto).

Not only will that enable your calls to be judged in a better light, but more people will click the donate button that you will place conveniently below it :-)

Thanks and keep up the good work!

]]> By: EL http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8132 EL Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:15:44 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8132 TPC, no need to justify or explain the nuances are numerous and your guidance and commentary are very relevant. For the back benchers, why don't you create your own blog and stick your neck out there everyday? be curious to see how prescient you could be on a daily basis. Keep up the good work TPC ! TPC, no need to justify or explain the nuances are numerous and your guidance and commentary are very relevant. For the back benchers, why don’t you create your own blog and stick your neck out there everyday? be curious to see how prescient you could be on a daily basis.
Keep up the good work TPC !

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-expectation-ratio-surges-to-a-new-2-year-high/comment-page-1#comment-8122 TPC Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:40:52 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=11661#comment-8122 You're nit picking a bit Joe. Whether I turned bearish or neutral is not what's important. What is important is that I was RIGHT. And if you read the comments which you so conveniently excluded, you'll notice that I was in fact short Yen and Can$ over the last week (which has resulted in further upside for me). So, while you like to focus on the equity markets and nothing more I have been bearish via other instruments. But if you'd like to misconstrue that please be my guest. As for the ER, it is a read on corporate earnings (which I believe are the primary driver of prices). As I clearly explained when I turned bearish, I believed the earnings rally had been priced in and the ER was likely to turn down. That's pretty cut and dry. Just because an indicator continues to rise doesn't mean I am going to be bullish and continue to believe it rises higher.... You’re nit picking a bit Joe. Whether I turned bearish or neutral is not what’s important. What is important is that I was RIGHT. And if you read the comments which you so conveniently excluded, you’ll notice that I was in fact short Yen and Can$ over the last week (which has resulted in further upside for me).

So, while you like to focus on the equity markets and nothing more I have been bearish via other instruments. But if you’d like to misconstrue that please be my guest.

As for the ER, it is a read on corporate earnings (which I believe are the primary driver of prices). As I clearly explained when I turned bearish, I believed the earnings rally had been priced in and the ER was likely to turn down. That’s pretty cut and dry. Just because an indicator continues to rise doesn’t mean I am going to be bullish and continue to believe it rises higher….

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