Comments on: THE GURU OUTLOOK

By: Alan B.

Alan B. — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 23:46:43 +0000

According to newsletter author, Nick Guarino, gold is about to crash and we are in a severe deflation. Much of the government stimulus money went back into government bonds because the bank recipients had to build up their reserves and they have stopped much of their lending, especially to the unqualified. The crux of his argument is that the money allegedly produced is not circulating in the economy and therefore not inflationary.

Nevertheless, the government’s reckless policies will cause heavy inflation in the future and then the national debt can be paid back with cheaper dollars.
Taxation by local, state and the federal government will increase to even more punitive levels. There is no doubt in my mind that the policies of the last forty years have run our once great country into the ground. Greed, selfishness and stupidity are the hallmarks of our congress and leadership.

Prtectionsm is a dirty word, but if a country does not protect their own interests, as we have done, it will be at the nation’s expense. If you want to understand what has happened, read Ravi Batra’s books published in the 80’s and 90’s.
He is an economist and was, maybe he is still there, at Texas Methodist University. “The Myth of Free Trade, The Crash of the MIllennium, and The Great American Deception are three of them.

By: Jason

Jason — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:31:06 +0000

Gold Coins and Gold Bullion can be conviscated by order 2006 Patriot Act!!!!
Only Gold Coins over 25 Years out can be kept by the AMERICAN PEOPLE!!!!!!!

By: Jeff Miles

Jeff Miles — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 19:31:00 +0000

Jimbo,

Higher interest rate will follow inflation. As dollar loses
its value the cost of goods purchased increases, which results
in inflation. This in turn will result in higher interest rate.

You can’t stop buying essentials like food, fuel,rent etc.

Hope it clarifies the basics. If You want to survive this
mess and do it profitably , invest like the gurus do.

By: jimbo

jimbo — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:25:00 +0000

Hope it’s permissible to ask a question. I’m not knowledgeable in the world of economics, so much that I read I don’t understand. On 14 October James said:
“Higher (interest) rates right now would be the death of the American Government and economy”. Since I am a rank amateur, that sounds counter-intuitive to me.
I know I must be missing something here, but many seem concerned with inflation. The more sales (buying) you have, the more inflation. Would not higher interest rates slow down buying, thus slowing down inflation?
I would be grateful for any explanatory comments to help me understand this puzzle.

By: James

James — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 01:22:39 +0000

All I know is the future really looks bleak unless there is something huge that happens (like new technological discoveries). The way this world is heading, it is heading for war and disease and famine and economic collapse within the next 50 years. With that being said, there is a lot of pressure still on the bond market/treasuries. When the Fed slows down the long term treasury debt purchases, they will have to begin dehydrating the equity markets so capital flows into the debt markets because they cannot allow higher rates. Higher rates right now will be the death of the American government and economy.

By: LZ

LZ — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 22:13:30 +0000

TPC,

If you have list of recommended books Marc Faber’s “Tomorrow’s Gold” should be one of them. He nailed almost everything 7 years ago.

This is what he predicted next: (hyperinflationary) depression wipes out American Middle class. Corporate America controlled Government start Third world wars to divert public anger and to secure last drop of oil from middle east. At the end American will suffer much more than their enemies( I thought he means LOSE, but maybe losing everything is only way to get rid of excessive debt?)

As things turned out being on right track of his prediction, which sound nearly insane to everyone in the year 2002. And I have no reason to question why rest of his prediction will not come true because step by step we are going to that direction.

Not trying to be doom and gloom here, but hey in history this movie had been played over and over again.

By: TPC

TPC — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:29:20 +0000

HUO, you’re actually wrong. Paulson made about a billion dollars more than I did last year and Faber called the market bottom to the day. I was one day earlier. Sorry.

By: HUO15

HUO15 — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:24:40 +0000

TPC, what is YOUR outlook? You’ve made better calls than both of these guys over the last year.

By: Robbie

Robbie — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:12:43 +0000

I think the reflation is possible -to an extent- as there is much more “real” but “devalued” Dollars in the system. This time the reflation will not be so much the bubbles of the past, but rather via inflation that will increase the value of all and sundry, but relatively more in the everyday expenses rather than homes and equities.

By: steve e

steve e — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 19:54:37 +0000

Unfortunately, I agree with you. Our situation is akin to pre-Thatcher Britain. Our industrial base has been hollowed out.

We cannot lose huge cos like GM and Chrysler and not feel it. The Dow is rising on the financials, who thanks to the beating the FASB took, are not showing the true story.