The Labor Market Remains Weak….
Not a great NFP report. Econoday has a nice summary:
Job creation in June was sluggish in June but there are some positive signs for manufacturing and personal income. The unemployment rate remains elevated and unchanged at 8.2 percent in June. Payroll jobs in June advanced a modest 80,000, following gains of 77,000 in May (originally 69,000) and 68,000 in April (previous estimate of 77,000). The net revisions for April and May were down 1,000. The market consensus was for 90,000 (but was based on a survey several days prior to the favorable ADP report).
Private payrolls advanced 84,000 in June after gaining 105,000 the prior month. Expectations were for a 100,000 increase.
Average hourly earnings improved to a 0.3 percent boost from 0.2 percent in May. Analysts called for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek edged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 in May. The market median forecast was for 34.4 hours.
Positives in the report include a notable gain in manufacturing employment, production hours in manufacturing posting a gain, and aggregate earnings rising significantly.
Cullen Roche
Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.
Follow Me:
4 Comments
Futures are down on the news, but this means more QE so it’s probablt market positive.
If you look beneath the headline it’s actually not too bad – the unadjusted number had 475k more people in work. I think the market has sold off a bit because it’s not weak enough for QE.
The numbers were horrible. We are in the middle of summer, trillions in stimulus (a post World-War II high Federal debt/GDP ratio of 101.5%.) and 5+ years since it all began. Hoover is looking smarter every day Mr. Bernanke.
Cullen,
Can you draw any conclusions about the accuracy of the birth/death adjustment during a period of seemingly accelerated weakness?
Perhaps I should post this on the “Ask Cullen” portion of the site
Thanks.