http://pragcap.com/the-mother-of-all-depressions Sun, 12 Feb 2012 06:49:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://pragcap.com/the-mother-of-all-depressions/comment-page-1#comment-2317 TPC Tue, 23 Jun 2009 15:37:11 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5614#comment-2317 A 70% decline from the high in the S&P would be about 450. That's a further 50% decline from here. Not totally unreasonable, but it would take an incredible amount of continued stress for such a thing to happen. I'd peg the probability of this happening at less than 25%.... A 70% decline from the high in the S&P would be about 450. That’s a further 50% decline from here. Not totally unreasonable, but it would take an incredible amount of continued stress for such a thing to happen. I’d peg the probability of this happening at less than 25%….

]]> http://pragcap.com/the-mother-of-all-depressions/comment-page-1#comment-2316 DF Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:40:51 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=5614#comment-2316 In real terms, stocks were down about 65% (57% nominally) at the low in March so he might not be too far off with that call. And every market topping out at over twenty times earnings has eventually ended below nine times (using Shiller's 10-year real P/E). The latter would put the S&P at about 510--a 67% nominal decline from October's high. In real terms, stocks were down about 65% (57% nominally) at the low in March so he might not be too far off with that call. And every market topping out at over twenty times earnings has eventually ended below nine times (using Shiller’s 10-year real P/E). The latter would put the S&P at about 510–a 67% nominal decline from October’s high.

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