Comments on: THE NEXT GREAT BUBBLE http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2 Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:29:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: SpanishDonkey http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-5707 SpanishDonkey Fri, 04 Sep 2009 14:19:40 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-5707 While I agree that the food bubble has a high probability of occurring, it's certainly not 100%. With increasing populations, there's also a higher probability of diseases being spread on a pandemic scale (including those we haven't heard of yet). If something happens that wipes out 75% of the world's population, then you won't have a food shortage, clean water would be more abundant, and global warming would subside (until the population begins to increase again). While I agree that the food bubble has a high probability of occurring, it’s certainly not 100%. With increasing populations, there’s also a higher probability of diseases being spread on a pandemic scale (including those we haven’t heard of yet). If something happens that wipes out 75% of the world’s population, then you won’t have a food shortage, clean water would be more abundant, and global warming would subside (until the population begins to increase again).

]]> By: zorlac http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-5040 zorlac Thu, 20 Aug 2009 21:15:46 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-5040 You forget a big one : greenhouse gas emissions bubble. see : http://www.chicagoclimatex.com You forget a big one :

greenhouse gas emissions bubble.

see : http://www.chicagoclimatex.com

]]> By: Singletaxonland http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2915 Singletaxonland Sat, 11 Jul 2009 04:26:14 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2915 The bubble and bust economy is due to the rental value of land being privatized and treated as a commodity. All these financial bubbles originate from the illusion one man can deny other men the right to exist on this earth because of a title. This becomes economically dangerous when all the land is titled or legally owned. Once the land is bottled up there is an enormous pressure driving wages down creating a perpetual landless class. This is the beginning of a welfare state. The Progressive era started when land in the USA became legally owned, around the 1880s. Usually there is a migration associated with it unless the destinations are more bottled up. In the past Europe sent migrants to the USA, now Mexico and others partake. The USA was a relief valve but not anymore. The welfare state spawned Frannie, Freddie, among other entitlements and expenses to keep the landless satisfied. We are now like Europe. Secondly,treating the rental value land as a commodity brings on speculative investing about every 18 years. What happens is the value of land increases which draws more cash out of the economy into a nonproductive investment, land speculation. After a while the real productive economy is starved for cash and then the fed starts manipulating the economy. There are different scenarios but in the end a crises results. Most analysis deals with the various symptoms like the Fed, Treasury, Fannie, the SEC, the bankers, etc. but never finds the origination of all these financial bubbles. The solution would be to share the rental value of land by shifting property taxes off improvements to land value. This would evaporate the demand to speculate in land. Keep in mind land values are directly related to community funding such as roads, bridges, police, sewage, utilities, etc. The Landlords do not increase the value of their property so taxing it is much better then taxing the productive economy as we now do. The bubble and bust economy is due to the rental value of land being privatized and treated as a commodity. All these financial bubbles originate from the illusion one man can deny other men the right to exist on this earth because of a title. This becomes economically dangerous when all the land is titled or legally owned.

Once the land is bottled up there is an enormous pressure driving wages down creating a perpetual landless class. This is the beginning of a welfare state. The Progressive era started when land in the USA became legally owned, around the 1880s.

Usually there is a migration associated with it unless the destinations are more bottled up. In the past Europe sent migrants to the USA, now Mexico and others partake. The USA was a relief valve but not anymore. The welfare state spawned Frannie, Freddie, among other entitlements and expenses to keep the landless satisfied. We are now like Europe.

Secondly,treating the rental value land as a commodity brings on speculative investing about every 18 years. What happens is the value of land increases which draws more cash out of the economy into a nonproductive investment, land speculation. After a while the real productive economy is starved for cash and then the fed starts manipulating the economy. There are different scenarios but in the end a crises results.

Most analysis deals with the various symptoms like the Fed, Treasury, Fannie, the SEC, the bankers, etc. but never finds the origination of all these financial bubbles.

The solution would be to share the rental value of land by shifting property taxes off improvements to land value. This would evaporate the demand to speculate in land. Keep in mind land values are directly related to community funding such as roads, bridges, police, sewage, utilities, etc. The Landlords do not increase the value of their property so taxing it is much better then taxing the productive economy as we now do.

]]> By: Mark (SportsBiz) http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2732 Mark (SportsBiz) Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:02:44 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2732 Desal isn't necessarily th emost significant way to play water though. As Darial points out, water infrastructure are an alternative as are water purification plays. Companies like Veolia and Watts Water Technologies generally don't need to wait for the desalination play to work its way out as they are in demand now. Desal isn’t necessarily th emost significant way to play water though. As Darial points out, water infrastructure are an alternative as are water purification plays. Companies like Veolia and Watts Water Technologies generally don’t need to wait for the desalination play to work its way out as they are in demand now.

]]> By: Darial http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2665 Darial Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:47:04 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2665 Might want to think about water infrastructure stocks. No matter the economy, the government will always have to invest in water infrastructure to sustain society. Might want to think about water infrastructure stocks. No matter the economy, the government will always have to invest in water infrastructure to sustain society.

]]> By: q http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2656 q Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:14:18 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2656 if you believe in hyperinflation (and i don't), you should be long real estate and leveraged as much as possible. why is it that the hyperinflationistas don't bring up nominal debt as the best inflation hedge? if you believe in hyperinflation (and i don’t), you should be long real estate and leveraged as much as possible.

why is it that the hyperinflationistas don’t bring up nominal debt as the best inflation hedge?

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2647 TPC Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:34:32 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2647 Good stuff Jay. Thanks for stopping by! Good stuff Jay. Thanks for stopping by!

]]> By: Jay (market folly) http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2645 Jay (market folly) Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:09:05 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2645 good stuff TPC, will be linking in my linkfest. I'd agree that water could potentially be a big problem, but the desalination plays right now seem to be a function of higher energy prices. I did a lot of work on ERII a while ago (built a model, etc) and it just wasn't a grand slam by any means. Obviously, the story will take more time to play out and the severity of the issue will need to increase. But, for the most part, I've found desal plays to correlate to energy prices. As of right now, the most desal would be in the middle east, etc. China obviously has big water problems too. Just a matter of finding out the best way to play it. Concept is always one thing (macro level) and execution is another (investment vehicle). good stuff TPC, will be linking in my linkfest.

I’d agree that water could potentially be a big problem, but the desalination plays right now seem to be a function of higher energy prices. I did a lot of work on ERII a while ago (built a model, etc) and it just wasn’t a grand slam by any means. Obviously, the story will take more time to play out and the severity of the issue will need to increase. But, for the most part, I’ve found desal plays to correlate to energy prices. As of right now, the most desal would be in the middle east, etc. China obviously has big water problems too. Just a matter of finding out the best way to play it. Concept is always one thing (macro level) and execution is another (investment vehicle).

]]> By: Epiminondas http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2644 Epiminondas Thu, 02 Jul 2009 02:14:02 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2644 Stop with the global warming nonsense, already. It's ruining your credibility with the thinking public. Stop with the global warming nonsense, already. It’s ruining your credibility with the thinking public.

]]> By: Paul http://pragcap.com/the-next-great-bubble-2#comment-2632 Paul Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:41:04 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6002#comment-2632 TPC, I like VE, though a bit expensive at the moment. TPC,
I like VE, though a bit expensive at the moment.

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