Comments on: THE OIL:GAS RATIO IS AT 19 YEAR HIGHS http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs Sat, 26 May 2012 09:29:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: Mark http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5154 Mark Sun, 23 Aug 2009 05:27:13 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5154 The NG ETFs are a huge part of the NG markets. For a description of why this is a problem, see http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/11/56933/the-problem-with-commodity-etfs/ The ETF would hold 78% of the open positions in NG on NYMEX. 78%! If you want NG exposure, buy a royalty trust. They don't have expense ratios, are liquid, and pay a dividend if the price of NG goes up and if it goes down. There are alot of games in the NG market, and alot of smart operators fleecing people who are only looking at the oil/gas price ratio. The NG ETFs are a huge part of the NG markets. For a description of why this is a problem, see http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/11/56933/the-problem-with-commodity-etfs/

The ETF would hold 78% of the open positions in NG on NYMEX. 78%!

If you want NG exposure, buy a royalty trust. They don’t have expense ratios, are liquid, and pay a dividend if the price of NG goes up and if it goes down.

There are alot of games in the NG market, and alot of smart operators fleecing people who are only looking at the oil/gas price ratio.

]]> By: zstock http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5148 zstock Sun, 23 Aug 2009 02:12:20 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5148 Anybody here use Disqus comment tools? Increased my website traffic 500% in 6 months--- Anybody here use Disqus comment tools? Increased my website traffic 500% in 6 months—

]]> By: zstock http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5147 zstock Sun, 23 Aug 2009 02:10:17 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5147 I've calculated that UNG should bottom at 10.4-11.0--it's a lot harder to calculate this time, since its price disconnected from my $Natgas chart--as far as going higher this winter--that's what everybody who is anybody is saying--so far! I’ve calculated that UNG should bottom at 10.4-11.0–it’s a lot harder to calculate this time, since its price disconnected from my $Natgas chart–as far as going higher this winter–that’s what everybody who is anybody is saying–so far!

]]> By: jenny http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5106 jenny Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:56:21 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5106 TPC, Can you comment on this article that I just came across..."Natural gas's dirty little secret"...https://rigzone.com/news/artic I like to know what you or other readers think of it. Thanks in advance. TPC,

Can you comment on this article that I just came across…”Natural gas’s dirty little secret”…https://rigzone.com/news/artic I like to know what you or other readers think of it. Thanks in advance.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5083 TPC Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:20:47 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5083 KKR, Nice to finally see you commenting! Glad you're enjoying the site. Unfortunately, the supply on the market is unreal so further downside and volatility should not come as a great surprise, but I like gas as a long-term holding in ones portfolio. $3.30 natgas will look cheap in 10 years. I hate UNG for the reasons James mentioned above. It is terribly inefficient for long-term holdings and causes all sorts of issues when you get that nasty k-1 at the beginning of the year. If you're going to play the NatGas market you have to use futures or equities. FCG is my favorite way to buy into the nat gas stocks. Personally, I have no holdings in anything natural gas related so I am not exactly talking my book here. If I were playing the energy markets I'd probably be more inclined to stick with oil....Natural Gas has too many negative trends developing around it in the near-term, but the outlook into 2010 should be much better. Perhaps consider initiating a small position and adding to it in late winter? Just some thoughts. Good luck. KKR,

Nice to finally see you commenting! Glad you’re enjoying the site. Unfortunately, the supply on the market is unreal so further downside and volatility should not come as a great surprise, but I like gas as a long-term holding in ones portfolio. $3.30 natgas will look cheap in 10 years.

I hate UNG for the reasons James mentioned above. It is terribly inefficient for long-term holdings and causes all sorts of issues when you get that nasty k-1 at the beginning of the year. If you’re going to play the NatGas market you have to use futures or equities. FCG is my favorite way to buy into the nat gas stocks.

Personally, I have no holdings in anything natural gas related so I am not exactly talking my book here. If I were playing the energy markets I’d probably be more inclined to stick with oil….Natural Gas has too many negative trends developing around it in the near-term, but the outlook into 2010 should be much better. Perhaps consider initiating a small position and adding to it in late winter? Just some thoughts. Good luck.

]]> By: kkr555 http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5082 kkr555 Fri, 21 Aug 2009 16:00:36 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5082 TPC: This is my first comment here. I have been a silent spectator for almost 10 months now. I enjoy reading your site each and every day! I currently have 225 shares of UNG at $12.61/share. I have a buy order for 400 shares at $9/share. The bear market of UNG has been worse than anything other than the Great Depression. TPC, do you have any idea of buying into NG in the near future ? Is it not a good buy ? TPC:

This is my first comment here. I have been a silent spectator for almost 10 months now. I enjoy reading your site each and every day!

I currently have 225 shares of UNG at $12.61/share. I have a buy order for 400 shares at $9/share. The bear market of UNG has been worse than anything other than the Great Depression.

TPC, do you have any idea of buying into NG in the near future ? Is it not a good buy ?

]]> By: DH http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5078 DH Fri, 21 Aug 2009 15:49:22 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5078 The guy who runs Contango Oil & Gas (MCF) is like the Warren Buffett of the natural gas industry. Get this: He buys his stock back when it's low and issues shares when it's high. I know. I didn't believe it either. The guy who runs Contango Oil & Gas (MCF) is like the Warren Buffett of the natural gas industry. Get this: He buys his stock back when it’s low and issues shares when it’s high. I know. I didn’t believe it either.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5076 TPC Fri, 21 Aug 2009 15:37:45 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5076 Jenny, I have become a huge fan of the natural gas trust FCG. Could be a smooth way to play the potential upside in natgas while taking a fairly conservative bullish equity position. Good luck. Jenny,

I have become a huge fan of the natural gas trust FCG. Could be a smooth way to play the potential upside in natgas while taking a fairly conservative bullish equity position.

Good luck.

]]> By: jenny http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5075 jenny Fri, 21 Aug 2009 15:34:53 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5075 James, What natural gas producer would you invest in if you have to pick one? James,

What natural gas producer would you invest in if you have to pick one?

]]> By: James http://pragcap.com/the-oilgas-ratio-is-at-19-year-highs/comment-page-1#comment-5069 James Fri, 21 Aug 2009 13:24:10 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=7740#comment-5069 The large natural gas producers have hedges in the futures markets on low prices of gas for the immediate-moderate term future. So they are continually producing a lot in order to kill the smaller/medium companies and will buy these companies up. I mean, the fact is, if you went and bought natural gas now and stored it, you would make money eventually. If you went and bought the natural gas etfs (UNG and GAZ), not so certain. These etfs have had poor performance in relation to natural gas movements (such as GAZ being up 4% yesterday when natural gas tanked), not to mention contango and fees that occur with energy etfs. I mean, natural gas will go up when storage is all filled and big financial firms want it to go up based on 'this' or 'that'. I'd rather buy a small cap financially stable natural gas producer to play a natural gas run up rather than buy any crap etfs... The large natural gas producers have hedges in the futures markets on low prices of gas for the immediate-moderate term future. So they are continually producing a lot in order to kill the smaller/medium companies and will buy these companies up. I mean, the fact is, if you went and bought natural gas now and stored it, you would make money eventually. If you went and bought the natural gas etfs (UNG and GAZ), not so certain. These etfs have had poor performance in relation to natural gas movements (such as GAZ being up 4% yesterday when natural gas tanked), not to mention contango and fees that occur with energy etfs. I mean, natural gas will go up when storage is all filled and big financial firms want it to go up based on ‘this’ or ‘that’. I’d rather buy a small cap financially stable natural gas producer to play a natural gas run up rather than buy any crap etfs…

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