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THE ONE ANSWER I REALLY WANT TO KNOW….

17 September 2009 by TPC 5 Comments

When will Goldman Sachs issue an upgrade of the U.S. economy? Their price target of 1060 has been met and the recovery seems to be moving along at the rate Goldman expected. The next logical step is an upgrade of the economy and an increased price target. When will Goldman upgrade their expectations and just how high will they go? Some sources say it could be as soon as tomorrow….either way we all know it’s coming. The next question is how high will the market soar when they issue the upgrade?

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5 Comments »

Van said:

interesting chart:

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/sharpest%20equity%20rally%20during%20recession%20SP500%20index.png

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# 17 September 2009 at 6:08 PM

Brian said:

I thought they already did to 1200? Abbey Jospeh Cohen did a few months back (not to be upstasged by Merideth Whitney) but I thought Goldman had already said the market will go to 1200. Apparently not. If they don’t come out with something then that could speak volumes. We know how close the relationship is between the white house and Goldman. A few months ago I started sort of believing that the white house was speaking through Goldman. During these times, Goldman isn’t telling us what they think is going to happen, they’re telling us what is going to happen. Consider it Obama’s way of communicating in code to the masses (i.e. “my apologies for the manipulation but here’s the road map”) just as he did back in March. Who knows what to believe? The ONLY way to trade this market is ride the bucking bronco. Stop predicting.

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# 17 September 2009 at 6:09 PM

don said:

I can understand when GS upgrades a company and it’s stock as a consequence climbs, but for the same to be true with the stock market, that is something else entirely. This implies very significant influence on the part of one player – a considerable power to move the stock market.

If GS upgrades, then everyone presumably has the same expectation – and the outcome is virtually foreordained, and thus we have a self-fulfilling prediction. If that be the case, then it isn’t a prediction at all, but something much more explicitly directional: since we all now expect it, it almost by necessity happens.

As Brian says above, if GS doesn’t make the prediction, then are we to expect that the high has been obtained and now its time for the downturn? Or, do we wait in earnest for that prediction, becoming increasingly anxious the longer the time between now and the expected announced forecast? This amounts to a second order expectation; an expectation of an expectation.

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# 17 September 2009 at 7:28 PM

natasha said:

when the masters of the market strike with such an upgrade it may coincide with a turnaround in the dollar and some rise in 10 yr yields. those markets have yet to hint of green shoots.