THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EQUITY PRICES AND THE REAL ECONOMY
By Rohan at Data Diary:
A May 2007 paper by some fellows at the St Louis Fed looked at “Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms and Busts in the 20th Century“. It’s worth a read if you have the time. The following charts are taken from it:
Expanding money supply may be expressed in the host’s equity market – and/or any other sector(s) of its asset markets. It could also escape into consumer price inflation. Or it could actually be used for productive investment. The point is that if money supply is expanding faster than the fundamental economy, the excess supply will find a home.
This is a theme we shall explore in more detail at another time. For now wanted to explore a variant of this concept with respect to the equities market – the idea that the equities market can get ahead of the real economy when risk appetite and expanding money supply conspire to juice things up:
This chart isn’t so simple to read given that the absolute range of outcomes – on the face of it we are sitting in the middle of the long term range. It also doesn’t take into account the substitution of equity for debt (and vice versa) that is one of the objectives of our analysis. A better interpretation perhaps is that provided by relative market capitalisation. I’m still on the hunt for raw data but in the meantime consider this chart from The Chart Store (via The Big Picture):
It makes for an interesting comparison…
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More on this topic (What's this?)Alford: Rethinking Monetary Policy in the Light of Asset Bubbles (naked capitalism, 3/2/10)Guest Post: We Can’t Inflate Our Way Out of the Debt Crisis … So What CAN We Do? (naked capitalism, 3/12/10)Best Investments During Inflation (market folly, 8/10/10)Marc Faber: Massive Inflation and then War (Expected Returns, 7/14/10)
Would not read too much into these charts – GDP represents a crude yardstick for the income from publicly listed companies, since not only does it include the non-listed private sector but also the public sector, their direct expenditure and investments. Much better to stick to a “narrower universe” and measure the market cap in relation to earnings, sales, cash-flow, EV, etc. All this data is readily available and replacing it with GDP just adds too much noise.
No, the data you mention is not available for timeperiods long enough to put recent events into context.