Comments on: THE STOCK MARKET IS SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED

By: jt26

jt26 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:07:28 +0000

NPV of S&P P/E = 18 is fair value if you expect a forward currency devaluation of ~20%, over the next 5 years, and if you take into account dividends.

By: tyler cruickshank

tyler cruickshank — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:35:03 +0000

Back to AMZN …. I guess I needed a place to vent on the now 22% move. AMZN is a fantastic retailer and my favorite for personal use. The 22% move on a this kind of a stock is a shocker. It just seemed to me that the move was the result of 1) a growing company but also 2) in an environment of this continued buying in an over bought condition and valuation.

By: Rob

Rob — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:46:39 +0000

So the market is a bit overvalued for a normal econonomic and interest rate environment. Maybe about 2 years ahead of itself. But we have a super low interest rate environment. Investing alternatives always need to be considered. The price of stocks is determined by supply and demand not directly by valuation.

By: tyler cruickshank

tyler cruickshank — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:39:43 +0000

AMZN is up 20% overnight …. you think we are overvalued? If that isnt greed and a reason to stay out then nothing is.

By: Greedsgood

Greedsgood — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:30:36 +0000

In 1999, early 2000, the trailing 4+1 avg P/E was in the 26 range.

By: Kevin Gardiner

Kevin Gardiner — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:00:07 +0000

I’d be curious to know how far above the historic P/E of 15 the S&P 500 has gone before it corrected. For example, in the .COM bubble.