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THORNBERG: HOUSING TO REMAIN DEPRESSED

30 May 2009 by Cullen Roche 2 Comments

Chris Thornberg nailed the housing bust and has a very similar outlook to myself.   He believes a housing bottom could come this summer, but more likely later in the year.  More alarming, he believes prices will remain depressed for years. I should note of course that I do not see housing bottoming in the coming year (although I did call for this mid-year “false dawn”), but rather bumping lower and lower at a reduced rate until we see a full mean reversion. Another 20%+ price decline is in the cards before 2013 in my opinion.

Cullen Roche

Cullen Roche

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Comments
  • doh

    Given that that's a 15 month supply of condo inventory and (taking into account shadow inventory) a 20 month supply in houses, I can't see nominal prices bottoming until late 2010 or early 2011.

    Unless Obama adopted some extreme tactics, like giving foreigners citizenship if they buy a house as a residence, and demolishing a large amount of houses, and giving grants to US military vets, coast guard vets, and peace corp vets covering 20% of purchase price for a house.

    05/30/2009 at 6:49 PM
  • HankB

    How the hell can anyone be talking about a bottom this summer? Prices fell almost 19% year over year last month. We would have to see the most insane v-shaped spike in prices in order for that to happen. Unfortunately, the housing market doesn't turn on a dime like other markets do….

    05/30/2009 at 8:19 PM