Comments on: THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA

By: The Finn

The Finn — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 17:01:09 +0000

Sorry, my mistake. Didn´t read all the lines.

By: The Finn

The Finn — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:42:54 +0000

Was it really the earnings from JnJ that were so bad? I think they hit market
expectations.

But I don’t think the sales perfommance did live up to the market expectations?

By: TPC

TPC — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:20:45 +0000

Personally, I am having a hard time justifying short positions here. The XRT is essentially acting like a 1.4 beta version of the S&P. Keep in mind if fell more than 70% from peak to trough. If you are betting on a decline in the XRT you are betting on a decline in the whole market and I can’t say that I feel great about that right now.

I like the hedged idea, but short equities is not my hedge of choice right now.

By: Greedsgood

Greedsgood — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:07:23 +0000

re: Retail sales

I found this very interesting. Despite the 30% decline in the S&P500 from the 2007 peak, the S&P500 retail/discretionary index (XRT) is off only around 12% from peak. I find this shocking given the deterioration in the consumer over the last two years – unemployment, wealth, credit availability, etc. The only bright spot I can point to is a weak dollar making exports more attractive.

TPG – I’m thinking a short XRT / long XLV (healthcare) looks prudent. Your thoughts on this?

By: TPC

TPC — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:01:25 +0000

ICSC +0.6% WoW. The YoY comps are very easy, but then again that’s what this whole rally is based on – not that things are getting much better, but just that they’re not as bad….

By: Uformula

Uformula — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 15:57:18 +0000

Would comparisons to last year on these types of metrics be imprudent? Last year the bottom almost fell out of the financial system and the economy froze. We should surely see improvement in YoY. What’s the WoW doing?