THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA
Today’s data was a big mixed with a confusing durable goods figure and stubbornly bearish jobs data. The durable goods data missed on the headline coming in at 0.3% vs expectations for a jump of 1.6%. The weakness was primarily in aircraft orders. Ex-aircraft, orders were 0.9% higher. Despite the miss, the trend in orders is clearly to the upside:
Jobless claims continue to disappoint. Claims came in at 470K vs expectations of 440K. The four week average is up for the second straight week. Continuing claims improved, but the underlying data was mixed. Econoday notes the potential for employment set-backs should this trend persist:
“Today’s report is a disappointment pointing to no improvement, and even the risk of a set-back, for monthly payroll data. Stocks and the dollar edged lower in reaction to today’s 8:30 data that included a smaller-than-expected gain for durable goods.”
