THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA
Today’s data was generally positive across the board. Retail sales came in at a robust 2.7% and 1.1% ex-autos. Both figures were better than expected, but still weak on a yearly basis. The year over year figures are -5.3% and -6.2% ex-autos. This morning’s figures were surprisingly strong outside of autos. Econoday reports:
Components outside of autos and gasoline were unexpectedly healthy other than housing or construction related components. Consumers apparently are a little more optimistic about the economy as they boosted sales in a variety of categories, including general merchandise, up 1.6 percent for August; electronics & appliances, up 1.1 percent; and food & beverage stores, up 0.5 percent. The key laggards were furniture & home furnishings, down 1.6 percent, and building materials & garden equipment & supplies, down 1.2 percent.
In other retail news the ICSC reported a 0% move in weekly sales and a 1.6% jump in year over year sales. Redbook retail sales data continues to come in very weak at -1.9% although these figures are substantially better than the consistent -4% readings we’ve been seeing.
PPI was also released today. Prices jumped 1.7% in August, but were primarily due to a 23% spike in gasoline prices during the month. The year over year figure was -4.3%.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey continues to show a recovery in the manufacturing sector. Econoday reports:
Indications are building that the manufacturing sector, having stabilized at a new base line, is now turning higher. Led by new orders, the Empire State index rose nearly 7 points in September to 18.88. New orders nearly rose 6-1/2 points to 19.84 pointing to increasing activity in the months ahead.
All in all pretty solid data if you’re a stock market bull.



I’m not sure if the above chart is accurate. Here is a chart based on data from the US Census Bureau:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm
This chart shows y/y% retail sales in August were slightly lower than they were in June of this year. Which means that US retail sales are staying within a range and not improving at all, despite the cash for clunkers and other government programs to stimulate consumer spending.
The y/y% chart is the same as a seasonally adjusted chart. While the m/m% change is a seasonally unadjusted number that doesn’t take into account things like the back to school sales season in August.
Sales always increase from July to August due to the back to school sales season. And this is what the seasonally unadjusted 2.7% increase in retail sales represents.
I was surprised that core retail sales came in higher. Tracking the Goldman store sales and the Redmond surveys I guess is no good. Both those indicators pointed to declines in sales. So what happened? Also, consumer credit shrank while the savings rate continues elevated. Wages are stagnant or falling, job losses continue….. What’s up with this retail sales number?