Comments on: THOUGHTS ON THIS MORNING’S DATA http://pragcap.com/thoughts-on-this-mornings-data-5 Thu, 18 Mar 2010 07:29:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Uformula http://pragcap.com/thoughts-on-this-mornings-data-5#comment-6025 Uformula Wed, 16 Sep 2009 01:15:14 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=8935#comment-6025 I was surprised that core retail sales came in higher. Tracking the Goldman store sales and the Redmond surveys I guess is no good. Both those indicators pointed to declines in sales. So what happened? Also, consumer credit shrank while the savings rate continues elevated. Wages are stagnant or falling, job losses continue..... What's up with this retail sales number? I was surprised that core retail sales came in higher. Tracking the Goldman store sales and the Redmond surveys I guess is no good. Both those indicators pointed to declines in sales. So what happened? Also, consumer credit shrank while the savings rate continues elevated. Wages are stagnant or falling, job losses continue….. What’s up with this retail sales number?

]]> By: Nick http://pragcap.com/thoughts-on-this-mornings-data-5#comment-6000 Nick Tue, 15 Sep 2009 14:50:05 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=8935#comment-6000 I'm not sure if the above chart is accurate. Here is a chart based on data from the US Census Bureau: http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm This chart shows y/y% retail sales in August were slightly lower than they were in June of this year. Which means that US retail sales are staying within a range and not improving at all, despite the cash for clunkers and other government programs to stimulate consumer spending. The y/y% chart is the same as a seasonally adjusted chart. While the m/m% change is a seasonally unadjusted number that doesn't take into account things like the back to school sales season in August. Sales always increase from July to August due to the back to school sales season. And this is what the seasonally unadjusted 2.7% increase in retail sales represents. I’m not sure if the above chart is accurate. Here is a chart based on data from the US Census Bureau:
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/retail.htm

This chart shows y/y% retail sales in August were slightly lower than they were in June of this year. Which means that US retail sales are staying within a range and not improving at all, despite the cash for clunkers and other government programs to stimulate consumer spending.

The y/y% chart is the same as a seasonally adjusted chart. While the m/m% change is a seasonally unadjusted number that doesn’t take into account things like the back to school sales season in August.

Sales always increase from July to August due to the back to school sales season. And this is what the seasonally unadjusted 2.7% increase in retail sales represents.

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