THOUGHTS ON THURSDAY’S DATA
11 June 2009 by TPC
2 Comments
No big surprises in this mornings data. Retail sales were essentially in-line with estimates and the jobless claims data was mixed. Retail sales were relatively strong, but nothing to get overly excited about. Sales came in at 0.5% vs 0.3% ex-autos which is better than expected.
Jobless claims were just 601,000 which was better than expected. Unfortunately, continuing claims made a new record at 6.81MM. While there are tepid signs that the high level of job losses is moderating there are still no signs that employers are hiring and this is the real key to any economic recovery.
More on this topic
(What's this?)
Initial Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly by 15,000
(naked capitalism, 6/25/09)
The End of the Recession: A New Indicator Predicts With Startling Accuracy
(Investment U, 5/26/09)
Jobless claims down, but still high
(The Mess That Greenspan Made, 3/4/10)
Surprise, Surprise: Jobless claims up
(Expected Returns, 6/25/09)
I was just reading something about what the FEDs next step should be and it kind of makes sense. Since they are losing control on taming the treasury market and since the dollar is sinking and oil is flying high; what if they sparked some short term fear back into the stockmarket by letting a bank or two get thrown to the wolves. People would panic out of the market,pile into treasuries,the dollar would strenghten and oil would fall. Then they could find all the buyers they could ever need in treasuries and at the sametime lower mortgages back to 4 percent again. Does this make anykind of sense at all?
Tony,
Must have missed your comment last night. I certainly agree with you. They had to save Merrill and other brokers because there is no way to deal with these firms that (weren’t) banks, but banks that fail should enter the FDIC receivership process. It’s the best way to extinguish debt and get on the fast track to health. Your comment is dead on.
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