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THOUGHTS ON THURSDAY’S DATA

27 August 2009 by Cullen Roche 8 Comments

More mixed economic data this morning.  GDP came in better than expected and points to a strong likelihood of a positive print  next quarter.  Investors were expecting Q2 GDP to be revised down to -1.5%, but the number came in at -1%. Econoday reports:

Exports and personal consumption were revised up while inventories and nonresidential investment were revised down. Net, final sales are now positive at an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter, compared to the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent dip. This follows three consecutive declines, including a 4.1 percent decline in the first quarter. The improved estimate for final sales and lower inventories raises the odds of a moderate gain in GDP for the third quarter-probably the best news out of the report.

gdp

More alarming is the jobless claims data.  Despite being 2 years into a recession we are still seeing little to no signs of a recovery in the jobs market.  Total claims came in at 570K this morning which was essentially in-line with the 565K estimate.  Continuing claims fell to 6.13MM, but remain extraordinarily high for a “recovery”.   This news should give investors pause about the pace of any upturn in the economy.  Without a swift rebound in jobs it is unlikely that the recovery will be above trend.

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Comments
  • X

    New buyers !!!!!!!!!!!

  • Jeff

    Down like a rock then up like a rocket all within a couple of hours. FRE +6.9%, C +8%, IRE +10% – go figure. I guess investing in banks (gov’t) is safer than treasuries.

  • Cullen Roche TPC

    It’s truly insane how a short covering rally in 5 meaningless names can now move the entire market higher….

  • Henry

    If C closes above $5 I am jumping in. It’s amazing how 10 points down becomes 5 points positive. This bull is on steroid :) The media is spinning it into a positive. 570K initial claims 2 years into the recession and they call it good because it’s not as bad as prior. Nevermind the fact that it is more than expected plus many are falling off the benefits wagon.
    BTW I am NOT a long term investor!!

  • Speedy Gonzalez

    keep in mind the 1050-1060 for the S&P, that’s GS range and the market will go there.
    DON’T FIGHT THE FED….
    C is up on the rumors that Paulson is buying the stock and already has a stake of around 2%….

  • X

    Henry – no one is a long term investor in this mkt. Everyone is renting and not owning. Maybe another reason for shallow dips

  • Cullen Roche TPC

    Also,

    Ignore the Dow. The SP and Nas are the only indices that matter….

  • Jeff

    How many short covering rallies can we have? Any tips on what to look for – the H&S pattern failed. Seems like at every pause people want to short and we get short covering – at what point does it end.