THOUGHTS ON THURSDAY’S DATA
More mixed economic data this morning. GDP came in better than expected and points to a strong likelihood of a positive print next quarter. Investors were expecting Q2 GDP to be revised down to -1.5%, but the number came in at -1%. Econoday reports:
Exports and personal consumption were revised up while inventories and nonresidential investment were revised down. Net, final sales are now positive at an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter, compared to the initial estimate of a 0.2 percent dip. This follows three consecutive declines, including a 4.1 percent decline in the first quarter. The improved estimate for final sales and lower inventories raises the odds of a moderate gain in GDP for the third quarter-probably the best news out of the report.
More alarming is the jobless claims data. Despite being 2 years into a recession we are still seeing little to no signs of a recovery in the jobs market. Total claims came in at 570K this morning which was essentially in-line with the 565K estimate. Continuing claims fell to 6.13MM, but remain extraordinarily high for a “recovery”. This news should give investors pause about the pace of any upturn in the economy. Without a swift rebound in jobs it is unlikely that the recovery will be above trend.



New buyers !!!!!!!!!!!
Down like a rock then up like a rocket all within a couple of hours. FRE +6.9%, C +8%, IRE +10% – go figure. I guess investing in banks (gov’t) is safer than treasuries.
It’s truly insane how a short covering rally in 5 meaningless names can now move the entire market higher….
If C closes above $5 I am jumping in. It’s amazing how 10 points down becomes 5 points positive. This bull is on steroid
The media is spinning it into a positive. 570K initial claims 2 years into the recession and they call it good because it’s not as bad as prior. Nevermind the fact that it is more than expected plus many are falling off the benefits wagon.
BTW I am NOT a long term investor!!
keep in mind the 1050-1060 for the S&P, that’s GS range and the market will go there.
DON’T FIGHT THE FED….
C is up on the rumors that Paulson is buying the stock and already has a stake of around 2%….
Henry – no one is a long term investor in this mkt. Everyone is renting and not owning. Maybe another reason for shallow dips
Also,
Ignore the Dow. The SP and Nas are the only indices that matter….
How many short covering rallies can we have? Any tips on what to look for – the H&S pattern failed. Seems like at every pause people want to short and we get short covering – at what point does it end.