Home » Most Recent Stories

THOUGHTS ON TUESDAY’S DATA

14 July 2009 by Cullen Roche 2 Comments

Another day of mixed data.  Of course, Goldman blew out their earnings estimates so we went get into it.  Economic news is weak once again, however,  On the retail sales front the ICSC figures came in at -0.9% week over week and -0.7% year over year.  The Rebook data was again weak with a -5.7% year over year decline.   Retail sales came in at -0.2% after excluding autos and gasoline.  During a normal week this data likely would have the S&P 500 off 1%, but investors are fixated on earnings and Goldman’s miraculous ability to print money out of taxpayer money.   It’s amazing how wrong the analysts were on the Goldman numbers.  If not for Meredith Whitney’s $4.64 last minute estimate we would have been forced to deem the entire community useless.   Even more shocking is the fact that investors still celebrate when companies beat the estimates compiled from 20 people who literally have no clue what sort of profit anyone is going to report.   Out of pure fun I ran some back of the napkin numbers – I came up with a $4.80 estimate yesterday while I was eating my lunch.    Granted, my revenue estimate of $12.2B was off, but still a BILLION dollars closer than 95% of the analysts.   Better yet, Goldman’s stock is up another 1% while reports come out that executives sold $700MM  of stock recently.  It’s amazing how inefficient the market is.

retales1

Disclosures - Unless otherwise noted, authors have no positions in any securities mentioned and readers should never consider this to be investment advice. Always consult your financial advisor before acting on any ideas. Comments Guideline - Readers who denigrate authors or other readers will be banned without warning. This site does not tolerate any sort of reader abuse. The goal of this site is to create an environment that is conducive to learning and better understanding of the monetary system and the investment world. We expect readers to behave maturely and responsibly. We welcome and encourage intense and intelligent discourse, but the site adheres to a strict 1 strike policy. While it is your right to speak freely, it is not your right to behave childishly. Above all else, please enjoy the site. It is intended to be used as an educational tool and we hope the intelligent and mature debate will further that purpose. We hope readers will make an effort to respect that goal. Comments with excessive linking or foul language will be moderated before posting.
Comments
  • Kyle

    I really think the analysts (at least the ones cited on major news sits like yahoo/marketwatch/etc) just take last quarter’s revenue and attach a standard percentage increase to it. No actual analysis, mind you.

  • prescient11

    Executives selling the news eh. Frigging hilarious.

    This market is a fucking joke. Quite amusing.