Tracking the 7 Stages of Fed Policy

In this morning’s note David Rosenberg touched on the 7 phases of Fed policy.

Phase 1: Attempting to stabilize the mortgage market (August 2006 – January 2007)

Phase 2:  Responding to the financial crisis (February – September 2008)

Phase 3:  Containing the Great Recession (September 2008 – January 2009)

Phase 4:  Saving the banks (January – March 2009)

Phase 5:  Responding to the weak recovery/boosting the housing market (March 2009 – September 2012)

Phase 6:  Debt monetization/wealth effect pursuit (September – December 2012)

Phase 7:  Reviving the Phillips Curve – in search of BOTH higher inflation and lower unemployment (December 2012 … )

I think he should have added a few….Namely:

Phase 8: Pushing on a string

Phase 9:  More pushing on strings

Phase 10:  Whispering sweet nothings to the market through cheerful rhetoric

Phase 11:  Ben Bernanke exit stage right, 2014 without having fully revived the economy during the greatest expansion of monetary policy known to man….

Source: Gluskin Sheff

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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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