Comments on: TRADE OF THE DAY: MOVING TO NEUTRAL http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral Sat, 20 Mar 2010 12:11:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: DarylHansen http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2850 DarylHansen Thu, 09 Jul 2009 06:03:22 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2850 TPC, Nice timing! I have just recently covered all of my shorts and have had an incredible run. Looks like it is good timing for getting long some gold stocks for a trade. I agree that we might possibly see some better than expected earnings this quarter with AA being the first sneak peak. I think the market seesaws higher in the short term unless we get unexpected news. TPC,

Nice timing! I have just recently covered all of my shorts and have had an incredible run. Looks like it is good timing for getting long some gold stocks for a trade.

I agree that we might possibly see some better than expected earnings this quarter with AA being the first sneak peak.

I think the market seesaws higher in the short term unless we get unexpected news.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2844 TPC Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:16:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2844 Eric, nice ideas. I use IB for a few accounts. They are excellent. By far my favorite broker, but don't expect a lot of bells and whistles or customer service. It is very much a do it yourself service. Eric, nice ideas. I use IB for a few accounts. They are excellent. By far my favorite broker, but don’t expect a lot of bells and whistles or customer service. It is very much a do it yourself service.

]]> By: Eric http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2843 Eric Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:00:48 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2843 Seems as long as we hold 870 the trade will still be from the long side. Long ARMH, PALM, S....Own Puts on xrt and 80% cash. Need to see it bust through 870 on the close for me to get aggressively short. Not sure the PPT will allow it to go below 870. AAPL is an intriguing play going into earnings, wish I would have picked some up when it dipped below 135 today. Anyone have any recommendations on online brokers. I am thinking of switching from ameritrade to interactive brokers. Seems as long as we hold 870 the trade will still be from the long side. Long ARMH, PALM, S….Own Puts on xrt and 80% cash. Need to see it bust through 870 on the close for me to get aggressively short. Not sure the PPT will allow it to go below 870. AAPL is an intriguing play going into earnings, wish I would have picked some up when it dipped below 135 today. Anyone have any recommendations on online brokers. I am thinking of switching from ameritrade to interactive brokers.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2834 TPC Wed, 08 Jul 2009 21:12:47 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2834 Gregg, The AA quarter was 100% cost cutting. As you said, their revenues were worse than expected. Expect to see a lot of this this quarter. It will be interesting to see if investors will reward these companies for their lack of growth. It's certainly not a trend that can last, but I still don't think I want to be short heading into earnings. Gregg,

The AA quarter was 100% cost cutting. As you said, their revenues were worse than expected. Expect to see a lot of this this quarter. It will be interesting to see if investors will reward these companies for their lack of growth. It’s certainly not a trend that can last, but I still don’t think I want to be short heading into earnings.

]]> By: gregg http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2832 gregg Wed, 08 Jul 2009 20:55:03 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2832 I see Alcoa beat (loss of 26 cents vs expected loss of 38 cents), but like so many companies this year they missed on revenue (4.2b actual vs expected 4.3b). At some point these companies will need to beat by growing revenue, not cutting costs. I see Alcoa beat (loss of 26 cents vs expected loss of 38 cents), but like so many companies this year they missed on revenue (4.2b actual vs expected 4.3b). At some point these companies will need to beat by growing revenue, not cutting costs.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2831 TPC Wed, 08 Jul 2009 20:26:34 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2831 Aidyn, I don't mean to over emphasize the move in the Yen. My point is that it represents a major shift in sentiment into safe haven assets. I view that as a contrarian indicator that tells me the risk/reward of being short has substantially shifted here. In other words, the easy money on the short side has been made. Thanks for the stats. Good to know. Aidyn,

I don’t mean to over emphasize the move in the Yen. My point is that it represents a major shift in sentiment into safe haven assets. I view that as a contrarian indicator that tells me the risk/reward of being short has substantially shifted here. In other words, the easy money on the short side has been made. Thanks for the stats. Good to know.

]]> By: aidyn http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2829 aidyn Wed, 08 Jul 2009 20:21:11 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2829 TPC, Since 1990, there have been 38 times when USDJPY fell at least 2.3%. Buying on the close of that day and selling the next day has resulted in winning 57% of the time, but on the whole has been a losing strategy. By contrast, since 1990 only 4 times did SP500 fall more than 7%. While unusual, today's move in JPY is not particularly special. TPC,
Since 1990, there have been 38 times when USDJPY fell at least 2.3%. Buying on the close of that day and selling the next day has resulted in winning 57% of the time, but on the whole has been a losing strategy.
By contrast, since 1990 only 4 times did SP500 fall more than 7%.
While unusual, today’s move in JPY is not particularly special.

]]> By: Divided States of America http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2827 Divided States of America Wed, 08 Jul 2009 19:10:42 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2827 Well, if everyone was on one side of the trade on the leg up...and now they are taking the other side now, this correction can feed upon itself into something bigger if they start to go on the same side of the trade again, this time on the short side. Markets were not meant to move like this, obviously this is not healthy and I think staying on the sidelines is the best advice. Well, if everyone was on one side of the trade on the leg up…and now they are taking the other side now, this correction can feed upon itself into something bigger if they start to go on the same side of the trade again, this time on the short side.

Markets were not meant to move like this, obviously this is not healthy and I think staying on the sidelines is the best advice.

]]> By: StockY http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2826 StockY Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:49:01 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2826 TPC, congrats on ANOTHER ridiculous call. What are you doing next? Please keep us posted. TPC,

congrats on ANOTHER ridiculous call. What are you doing next? Please keep us posted.

]]> By: TPC http://pragcap.com/trade-of-the-day-moving-to-neutral#comment-2822 TPC Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:46:21 +0000 http://pragcap.com/?p=6238#comment-2822 Good thoughts MBA. The Yen just represents a move out of risky assets into safehaven assets. It's a good way of gauging the fear levels in the market. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yen move much higher, but squeezing out a move like I have is a pretty nice gain. Either way, it represents a shift more towards safety and risk aversion at a time when I don't see things falling off a cliff. We could easily trade down to 800-825 on the S&P, but I see more of a boring sideways market into August. Earnings will likely be mixed with tepid guidance, but tons of upside surprises. It might be enough for a little boost, but under the hood investors will notice that it's nothing more than cost cutting as opposed to organic revenue growth. There's not much out there that screams "buy". Good thoughts MBA. The Yen just represents a move out of risky assets into safehaven assets. It’s a good way of gauging the fear levels in the market. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yen move much higher, but squeezing out a move like I have is a pretty nice gain. Either way, it represents a shift more towards safety and risk aversion at a time when I don’t see things falling off a cliff.

We could easily trade down to 800-825 on the S&P, but I see more of a boring sideways market into August. Earnings will likely be mixed with tepid guidance, but tons of upside surprises. It might be enough for a little boost, but under the hood investors will notice that it’s nothing more than cost cutting as opposed to organic revenue growth.

There’s not much out there that screams “buy”.

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