TRUCK TONNAGE DECLINES IN MAY
Rail traffic hitting new highs, Baltic Dry Index rolling over, airline shipments seeing some stability and now trucking tonnage is stagnating. Which transport index is right? Via the ATA:
The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.6 percent in May, which was the first month-to-month drop since February of this year. This followed an upwardly revised 1 percent increase in April. The latest reduction put the SA index at 109.6 (2000=100).
The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 108.3 in May, down 2.8 percent from the previous month.
Compared with May 2009, SA tonnage increased 7.2 percent, which was the sixth consecutive year-over-year gain. In April, the year-over-year increase was 9.5 percent. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 6.2 percent compared with the same period in 2009.
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that truck freight tonnage is going to have ups and downs, but the trend continues in the right direction. “Despite the month-to-month drop in May, the trend line is still solid. There is no way that freight can increase every month, and we should expect periodic decreases. This doesn’t take away from the fact that freight volumes are quite good, especially considering the reduction in truck supply over the last couple of years.”
Source: ATA
I know I am an econ dummy, but from several articles I read, I came away with the notion that truck & rail are volatile on the basis of the empty shelves syndrome (inventory clearing) whereas (cargo) ship tonnage and cargo ship new orders were somewhat more reliable indicator of future strength.
Remember that fleet of about 200+ cargo ships sitting off the coast of Malaysia (or somewhere in the SE Asia/Pac Rim Island groups) in 2008?