U.S. ECONOMY LOSES -20K JOBS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 9.7%
The jobs market appears to be making the slow and steady move back towards some semblance of normality. Job losses totaled 20,000 for January and the unemployment rate declined to 9.7%.
Revisions to past months were substantial with the November report being revised upward to 64K gains and the December report being revised down to -150K. As you can see in the table below the job losses in past months were substantially worse than previously thought:
The brightest sign in the report is another positive reading in temporary workers at 52K. This is on the back of last month’s 59K. This could be a harbinger of permanent future hiring.
All in all, this looks like a pretty good report. The decline in the UE rate is a positive sign and the pick-up in temp working still leads me to believe we will see job growth early this year. Markets should retrace some of yesterday’s overreaction a bit. Unfortunately, this report does nothing to clarify the uncertainty regarding the major market risks at present: China, Eurozone debt and regulatory changes.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the given circumstances doesn’t the drop in the unemployment rate means that just more people got discouraged?
Yes
Good report? May be. I still cannot see past the blatant data manipulation by the BLS, it makes me so mad. So, the birth&death revision was 930K by the unemployement rate went down? Did they lose the count of 1 mil people somehow, they no longer exists? Even U6 is dropping now ebcause it only includes 12 months of data. Those laid off in fall of 2008 no longer count. Yuipee!
good is relative. And yes, the revisions and data changing is frustrating. Don’t get me wrong, this economy is still a mess. I’ll be the first one to admit it, but it’s not in the hole it was last year at this time.
True.
Decrease in unemployment simply means more people are statistically moved into the U6 category.
Hard to see a positive in a -20k loss but unemployment statistic improved by 0.4%.
I don’t see it as a good report the only positive is that we don’t have a big minus, anyway I’m flat now since we’re again short term oversold. During last month the correct strategy was try to short the mkt because of heavy divergences, changes of attitude on news, etc, waiting for a catalyst for a downturn. May be next four to six weeks correct strategy -now that earnings are almost out of the way- will be sell the strenght since there could be a serious re-assessment of risk. I’m looking to sell again rebounds in the next sessions.
The BLS revised down job growth in the 4/2008-3/2009 and hung the error on the positive bias of births in the birth/death in the small business population which drives their number while in the same breath refusing to adjust this positive bias. I speak to outside account executives on a daily basis who have told me that they are seeing more empty small business store space. I trust the feet on the street more than BLS’s b/d assumptions.
TPC,
This month is the worst data manipulation I have ever seen. These people are willing to lie right to our faces. Give it less than a week and you, KD, ZH and/or Calculated Risk will be giving us the inside scoop on how big the lie on the unemployment data today was. It is definitely not relevant data as you suggested because it is patently obvious that the metrics for measurement are totally different from what has been used even a few months ago. It appears that they have massaged the number of jobs being counted so as to keep the unemployment below 10%. Once this gets out to the public, the Obama administration will have zero credibility on any issue and deservedly so.