This is the video from the presentation I posted the other day from Christopher Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics.  He gave the keynote at the Value Investing Conference at the University of Virgina on October 29th.  Please see the previous story here for a summary.  Mr. Whalen’s full presentation is a must see, however:


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Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder of Orcam Financial Group, LLC. Orcam is a financial services firm offering research, private advisory, institutional consulting and educational services.

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  • Johnny

    Do you have youtube links to the other parts of the VIC? They’re unlisted

  • http://www.pragcap.com TPC

    Negative. Sorry.

  • scharfy

    Great talk, I like listening to this guy.

    “Banks have gone from financing commerce, to financing consumption”

    That’s a great comment by Whalen, the economic implications of which should be obvious to anyone.

  • roger erickson

    It’s obvious for investors to consider banks acquiring – with FDIC support – other banks. Yet that totally glosses over mortgage-gate. Estimating uncertainty, not just risk, is nowhere as easy as that statement implies.

  • roger erickson

    Whalen suggests that all litigation liability is “cleansed” by an FDIC pass-through receivership?

    is it really that easy? does that mean that, e.g., BOA is not liable for any WaMu mortgage fraud?

  • goodfriend

    Interesting picture. Stick to basics concept, yet overlooked, apply it to a whole industry on long cycles. I just still can’t believe his raroc figures:
    does anyone has details on those computations ? His NIM stuff does not convince me…just say that efficiency ratio ($ spent for $ earned) will increase. Is it a big deal ? I mean banks were amongst the lowest efficiency ratio (ie. very efficient like 0.6$ sept for 1$ PL). So they will converge with automaker model (well hope not since some of them are like 1.1$ spent for 1$ earned). People will be laid out, bonus will decrease…and life will goe on.

    Real question is housing markets, foreclosure and hidden losses..

  • Oroboros

    All parts, quite the lineup:


    (Note: the Part numbers on this page and those listed on YouTube are different)

    Part 1: UVA’s Darden School of Business Dean Robert Bruner and McIntire School of Commerce Dean Carl Zeithaml welcome the participants and guests. Dean Bruner speaks on “Reset vs. Recovery: Contrasting Points of View of the Economic Outlook Facing Investors” at the 2010 Value Investing Conference at the University of Virginia.

    Part 2: James Grant, Founder of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, gives a kynote on “Reset or recovery? The Macroeconomy and Value Investing” at the 2010 Value Investing Conference at the University of Virginia”.

    Part 3: Kyle Bass, Managing Member and Principal of Hayman Advisors, gives a keynote on “Global Sovereign Stress – What’s Happening, Where It’s Going and the Implications for Value Investing” at the 2010 Value Investing Conference at the University of Virginia”.

    Part 4: Stephen Roach, non-executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, gives a keynote on “The Next China: Implications for Asia and the Global Economy” at the 2010 Value Investing Conference at the University of Virginia”.

    Part 5: Chris Whalen, co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics, gives a keynote on “Understanding and Profiting from the Next Banking Crisis” at the 2010 Value Investing Conference at the University of Virginia”.

    Part 6: Whitney Tilson, Founder and a Managing Partner of T2 partners LLC, givesa keynote on “Our macro View and How It Impacts Our Portfolio Construction” at the 2010 Value Investing Conference at the University of Virginia”.

    Alt Part 2:

    Conference Notes:

  • Roger Ingalls

    This little bit must have banks a little itchy…

    Zero interest loans.


    That’s a surefire way to get on the news.

  • quark

    Christopher Whalen sites a friend, Paul Miller, whose mother had to go back to work because her interest returns have collapsed. There are plenty more who are looking for work because they have lost their principal. Does anyone have a statistic series that shows individuals entering the job market over 55?

  • http://merrillovermatter.blogspot.com Greg Merrill

    TPC, your reading / viewing list is starting to get a little long. Can you please provide cliff notes with the important sections highlighted? Also can you tell us what will be on the next mid-term ?