UPDATING THE EARNINGS PICTURE
Earnings have been relatively light so far, but the picture is turning up pretty much as we expected. With just 30 companies reporting thus far, 80% have topped analyst’s estimates with average outperformance of 18%. According to David Rosenberg, the earnings season is reflecting the very low current estimates (as companies beat) and very high H2 estimates (as companies cut guidance on the whole).
“On the earnings side, while it’s still very early, results have been good, with the blending growth rate tracking 186% year-over-year as of last Friday, slightly higher than the 184% penciled in last week. Over 80% of the companies beat analyst expectations with the average “beat” coming in at nearly 18% (much better than the 2.1% long-term average). Outside financials, the blended EPS growth rate is at 8% YoY, slightly higher than 7% last week.”
The early data shows the continued trend in very weak top-line growth:
“Top-line growth has been much softer. In aggregate, companies missed analyst revenue expectations’ by 0.4% — so much weaker than the 18% beat on earnings. Something to watch next week.”
The next three weeks will be big ones for corporate America. I fully expect the positive earnings trends to continue into the next few weeks and that likely means the market will remain bolstered by positive corporate commentary.
What a scam with these media outlet..When ES @ 1147 and drop to 1128, all the craps coming out about how JPM miss, consumers confidence low and investors concern, blah blah blah…Look at where it is now 1145 high today. Apparently, investors aren’t that concern after 3 days weekend eh….Loves the pundits…
TPC Reply:
January 19th, 2010 at 12:09 PM
It’s happened every time during this rally. Every time we get a 1% sell-off everyone automatically turns super defensive like a light switch. No one trusts the move which is why I think we’re heading even higher.
Henry Reply:
January 19th, 2010 at 2:30 PM
To me, the market is way manipulated and the media are just clueless. Either that or they are willing enabler. Dollar is up today but so does gold and commodities..There goes the inverse relation..Don’t hear that on the media. Yes, I do think the market could go higher on liquidity. The risk is that when fundamentals coming back or if a company miss earning. The rush to the exit the the mass won’t be pretty. I am NOT a long term holder here..