WHAT THE MACRO LANDSCAPE USUALLY LOOKS LIKE AFTER A 60% RALLY
21 September 2009 by Cullen Roche
1 Comment
Just how overbought is the current rally? Data from David Rosenberg would imply that we are currently living through a statistical outlier:
• GDP has expanded by 5.3%, on average (now just bottoming out)
• Corporate profits are growing at 34%, on average (ditto)
• Employment has rebounded by 2.1 mln (still declining)
• Bank lending rose an average of 16.5% (ditto)
• ISM is at 58.9, on average (now 52.9)
• Consumer Confidence (Conference Board) is at 91.8, on average (now 54.1)
Source: Gluskin Sheff
Of course it’s a statistical outlier because government has never had so much money to spend to keep a floor underneath and help push it higher. Duh!