Due to the holiday shortened week we’ll take an early look at what’s on tap for next week.   Earnings officially begin next week with Alcoa on Wednesday, but won’t really pick up momentum for a few more weeks.   23 companies have reported Q2 earnings so far this quarter and 18 of them have topped estimates.  This could be an early sign that analysts are far too pessimistic.   Of course, analysts are expecting a big rebound in second half earnings so it will be important to focus on the guidance corporations give as opposed to the Q2 earnings.   We also noted that revenues are likely to be very weak this quarter.  Cost cutting has far outpaced the revenue declines in the last quarter, but analysts have failed to account for this.  We should see real underlying weakness in earnings (despite better than expected numbers) and continued cautious guidance.

• Monday: June ISM services index
• Wednesday: May Consumer credit, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: May wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims
• Friday: July University of Michigan consumer confidence survey (preliminary), June import and export prices, May trade balance