Another huge week for the markets coming up. Another 18% of the S&P 500 will report earnings, but the shift will move from major market leaders to second tier companies. Very few of the reports will be major market movers like we’ve seen in recent weeks. I expect the impact of earnings to diminish substantially in the coming two weeks. This is one less log on the rally fire. The economics news will be front and center including the grand daddy of ’em all, the NFP report on Friday.
- Monday: July ISM manufacturing survey, July construction spending, July auto sales
- Tuesday: June personal income and spending, June pending home sales
- Wednesday: July ISM services index, June factory orders, July ADP employment survey, weekly crude inventories
- Thursday: weekly initial jobless claims
- Friday: July unemployment and change in nonfarm payrolls, June consumer credit
I’ve turned neutral on the market here. The risk reward appears most unfavorable. Although I am not directly shorting the equity markets I do have a number of pseudo shorts via the currency and derivatives markets. My equity exposure has been cut to 0% at this point. I feel very comfortable with my Thursday sell near S&P 995 after the disturbing late day action on Thursday and Friday. They say the smart money transacts after 3PM and the smart money was selling both days. We’ll see if it materializes into real selling in the coming weeks. I am having trouble finding a new catalyst for the rally. Positive earnings and an all out economic recovery are largely being priced into stocks here. Sentiment is wildly positive in the near-term. All of this makes me less than excited about buying into the market at these levels.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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