WHAT’S ON TAP?
Earnings season is essentially over. The market no longer has this positive catalyst backing it. Dell is the only potentially market moving report on Thursday. Economic data is relatively heavy, but scattered throughout the week:
Monday – A no news day. Look for investors to position themselves early in the week in anticipation for Wednesday’s new homes data.
3-Month Bill Auction – 1:00 PM ET6-Month Bill Auction – 1:00 PM ET
Tuesday – A potentially sloppy day. The retail sales data has been terrible, but is largely ignored by the mainstream media and Wall Street. Case/Shiller should show more signs of stabilization and consumer confidence is likely to show more weakness as retail sales continue to slip.
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales – 7:45 AM ETRedbook – 8:55 AM ETS&P Case-Shiller HPI – 9:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence – 10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index – 10:00 AM ET4-Week Bill Auction – 1:00 PM ET52-Week Bill Auction – 1:00 PM ET
2-Yr Note Auction – 1:00 PM ET
Wednesday- The pivotal day during the week. Investors expect a robust 3.2% growth in durable goods and another jump in new homes data. The two could offset one another.
Durable Goods Orders – 8:30 AM ETNew Home Sales – 10:00 AM ETEIA Petroleum Status Report – 10:30 AM ETDennis Lockhart Speaks – 11:30 AM ET
Thursday – GDP is expected to come in at -1.4%. Expect this to be more or less in-line. The claims estimate is calling for a hefty 565K. Don’t be shocked to see “better than expected” data.
GDP – 8:30 AM ETJobless Claims – 8:30 AM ETEIA Natural Gas Report – 10:30 AM ET7-Yr Note Auction – 1:00 PM ETFriday – The personal income data has been very weak lately. Don’t expect the trend to change.
Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30 AM ETConsumer Sentiment – 9:55 AM ET
Great expanded coverage for upcoming economic numbers/news.
One suggestion: Can you add the Fed’s Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) as well? These have had a strong correlation to strong late day surges in the market and would be a great addition to your list.
Penny-pinching Americans are getting cold feet at the checkout — thinking twice about spending and ditching items before they’re rung up.
They’re leaving sweaters in the dress department, dumping cookies near the grocery cashier and waiting until the last minute to weigh wants versus needs. Online, shoppers are abandoning their virtual carts as they search for better deals.
People “want to be in the act of shopping, but they don’t want to be in the act of buying,” said Joel Bines, a director at AlixPartners, a turnaround consultant.
Besides abandoning goods while standing in line, they’re paying close attention once checkout begins. They ask cashiers to provide a total while they’re still scanning items to see where they stand, or to have necessities like health care basics scanned first, said Dan Fishback, chief executive of DemandTec Inc., a retail technology company. When they hit their limit, they forgo what’s left in the basket.
Internet research company Forrester Research estimates as much as 59 percent of online purchases are being dumped during checkout. Those rates had ranged from 47 percent to 53 percent in the past six years, according to industry surveys.
The Container Store, which sells storage items, has seen its online abandonment rate rise to 68 percent. The company has launched an e-mail campaign to remind shoppers of their abandoned purchases and a service that lets shoppers pick up online purchases at the store to avoid shipping costs.
Eric Younan, 35, of Farmington Hills, Mich., who said he had never quit during the checkout process, has abandoned online shopping carts four times in recent weeks because he discovered extra charges late in the game.
“Two years ago, a $10 handling charge wouldn’t have fazed me, but now I would just drop it,” said Younan, a publicist. “Back then, I had more disposable income, and my time was worth money.”
So, TPC, i ask again – what would make you bullish. Last time you said lower prices or better catalysts. Lower prices are not coming anytime soon. Catalysts depend on what you are looking for – macro data will continue to surprise on the upside, though many (like Dean) will continue to obsess about the US consumer
Forgive me X, I just think mission impossible:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IXa2pNGVj8&NR=1
Gun to head, I am a buyer….
“So, TPC, i ask again – what would make you bullish. Last time you said lower prices or better catalysts. Lower prices are not coming anytime soon. Catalysts depend on what you are looking for – macro data will continue to surprise on the upside, though many (like Dean) will continue to obsess about the US consumer ”
It doesn’t surprise to the upside if everyone expects surprises to the upside. Bear market rallies end on good news.
Hi TPC, what do you mean by you’re a buyer?
Just check DOW futures up 68 points, banks rising from Bloomberg, US growing, very bullish, no catalyst to pause or lower, sky is the limit?
I mentioned this a few weeks ago, and really couldn’t believe that I was even pondering the level. But, it seems inevitable now that the S&P fills the early October SPY gap between 107.50-110.00. It’s there, people know it’s there, and sometimes this stuff becomes self fulfilling. That’s 5-8% higher from here. Not a recommendation, just an observation. Thoughts?
TPC, what the hell does that mean? I smell a reversal like you caught Thursday a.m. buddy.
IF I had a gun to my head I would be a buyer of stocks, but obviously that is not my position.
TPC, you goofy sob, if I had a gun to my head I would be an obama voter, well ok, maybe I wouldn’t go that far.
I’m sitting with my USD/Yen at 94.65 and I’m wondering whether to cut it loose or let it ride. Any thoughts on that my friend, it’s such a weird pairing…