ZULAUF: PREPARE FOR A CORRECTION IN ALL MARKETS
17 October 2010 by Cullen Roche
8 Comments
Felix Zulauf provided some excellent macro thoughts in a recent interview with King World news. Zulauf believes gold is in a secular bull market, but that the near-term move is overextended. More specifically, Zulauf says the downside in the dollar is overdone and he foresees a dollar rally into the year-end. This will cause a correction in most assets – equities, commodities and gold. He says the correction in gold as a buying opportunity, however.
As always, Zulauf’s thoughts are a must listen. You can see the full interview here:
a link to the transcript pls? I cannot watch it in my cp.
OR,
No transcript. Can’t get it to play? All you need is quicktime I believe.
http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/
Octavio,
It’s an MP3, right click and download the file, open in the appropriate player. Audio, not video. Also, VLC is a great player for oddly formatted audio and video.
http://www.videolan.org/
TPC,
Felix was clear in stating that the dollar is NEAR it’s bottom. I believe he said it could be within 2-3 weeks. That would put us right smack near the Election date if the bottoming draws out, interesting no? I think the dollar can go higher than some think, but that equities will rise (or at least not fall) along side the USD. I expect a small correction, I am prepared to be wrong though.
Either way, with all the POMO injections, I am “almost” certain we see new highs in Jan-Feb. I am building a short in OIL, as we are at the top of the range. Other than that, I am playing some select longs, and remaining nimble. I think we death march to new highs (2012-2013 perhaps), before the whole house of cards blows over again. Whether or not we hit new lows is of no concern to me, because the third collapse within 15 years is going to feel horrible regardless.
Bob Hoye has the same view. Markets are – in his opinion – bound to correct. The question is how much markets will correct/consolidate/collapse.
Felix Zulauf also has his doubts about (government) bonds. Time to go short the 10 year/30 year bond ?
Just my two cents, but, why on earth would anyone expect the dollar to rally? — Just because it is very low? It DESERVES to be, –even lower in fact. I cannot see how holding dollars is any kind of ‘safe’ play right now. The only safe plays around are the swiss franc, ‘few’ emerging markets, and gold/silver. I just don’t see the value in the US dollar anymore. The country is too indebted, and at some point soon the US will print more, whats safe about that? You might say “well this is the short term outlook”, but I would have to question if anyone cares about the short term outlook for the dollar anymore when countries like Brazil China India etc… are already trying to make deals without US dollars. As soon as the world realizes it can make do without the US dollar…… It may happen sooner than anyone thinks. Caveat: I ‘could’ be wrong. (there, now I sound like a proper newsletter writer).
Find a fund to be long the chinese currency. Not much risk in that trade. Today’s huge rejection of the highs along with the turn in the dollar and the gold and silver says to me that we have a high in for the year.
As long as the Federal Reserve System stays in power; the gov continues to print money the US dollar will continue to depreciate and inevitably spiral to what the Federal Reserve’s initial investment, NOTHING. That’s the reason they can cut interest rate and their profit is still 100%!!!
If you think this isn’t bad enough, wait till Obama nationalizes IRAs and annuities. All retirements will be running on empty and IOU will be your monthly check!