“83% historical probability of losses in the next 12 months”…

Just passing along this interesting data point from Citi’s Tobias Levkovick (via Business Insider):

“This week’s Panic/Euphoria reading was 0.52; versus last week’s revised number of 0.49, which points to two weeks in a row of euphoric signals, matched by increased money flows,”

…

“Euphoria readings indicate the market may retreat with an 83% historical probability of losses in the next 12 months,”

Cullen Roche

Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.

He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.