This market is starting to feel more and more like it did during the 4th quarter of last year. The more I think about the current crisis the more convinced I become of an eventual nationalization of the major banks. It is truly looking like our last resort. And it is because of that that I am having trouble finding a bullish scenario for the stock market. The banks will not rally if nationalization remains an option and it’s nearly impossible for the market to rally without the banks. I’ll likely dip my toes in the water as my Dow 7,500 playbook described, but this remains an incredibly risky market. Louise Yamada’s Dow 6,000 prediction isn’t looking so silly after all….
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.