The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index showed a decline for the month of November (link here):
“Led by declines in employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to –0.46 in November from –0.25 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index deteriorated from October to November, with only the production and income category improving.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked up to –0.41 in November from –0.42 in October. November’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Employment-related indicators made a contribution of –0.16 to the index in November, down from +0.10 in October. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 39,000 in November, after increasing by 172,000 in October; and the unemployment rate increased to 9.8 percent in November from 9.6 percent in the previous month.”
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.