I mentioned this on Twitter just moments ago and it’s worthy of its own post so here goes:
A European apocalypse would have to be the most talked about and forecast event of all-time….
The thing about black swans though, is that they surprise you. They aren’t seen by anyone and everyone in advance.
So if this all comes crashing down on our heads now, it would be the most colossal policy blunder of our lifetimes….
If we were to allow this all to unravel in some sort of Lehman 2.0 style event I believe it would be one of the greatest policy blunders in modern times. For an event to be so broadly analyzed and critiqued to eventually result in some sort of market/economic collapse would be really unbelievable. That doesn’t mean I have faith in Europe’s leaders to do what is right, but one would hope that they now understand the urgency of the situation and the necessity to prepare for the worst. I still think the Euro crisis resolution is simple. You’re either in the Euro 100% (meaning a move towards fiscal union) or you’re out (meaning a worst case scenario of default/defection). Thus far they seem to all want to stay in the Euro and understanding of the fact that Europe is only getting smaller and more interconnected as time goes on. So the choice seems clear to me. But where’s the bold action and the leadership? And why do they insist on walking the cliff of being responsible for what could potentially become the most colossal policy blunder of our lifetimes?
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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