Customize Consent Preferences

We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.

The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ... 

Always Active

Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.

No cookies to display.

Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.

No cookies to display.

Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.

No cookies to display.

Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.

No cookies to display.

Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.

No cookies to display.

Loading...
Most Recent Stories

10 Macro Indicators that point to no Recession

In a recent research note David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff checks in on 10 of his favorite macro recession indicators.  His conclusion – based on this there is a 0% chance of a recession at present:

1.  Inverted yield curve – despite the decline in bond yields, the spread between the 10 year US T-note and the three month T-bill is 244 points.

2.  Morgan Stanley Cyclical Stock Index down more than 10% – the index closed at a record high on Monday and is up 4.9% year to date.

3.  Bond yield rally of at least 135 basis points – the 10 year T-note yield has fallen 56 bps from the recent peak of 3.04% hit at the end of December.

4.   Commodity prices down 5-10% – the CRB spot commodity price index is just off a two year high hit in May and is up 9.3% year to date.

5.  High yield corporate bond spreads widen out 350 bps or more – spreads have continued to narrow and currently sit at almost seven year lows.

6.  ISM below 50 for at least on month – the ISM manufacturing index just ticked up to its highest level so far in 2014 at 55.4 in May.

7.  Initial jobless claims (four week moving average) up 75K – the four week moving average of initial claims fell to 311,500 in the week of May 24th, the lowest level since August 2007.

8.  Relative strength of the S&P Financials down at least 20% – the ratio of S&P financials to the S&P 500 is down 2% year to date and down 6% from the recent peak from last July.

9.  ECRI smoothed index of -5 or worse – the index was +5.3 for the week of May 23rd.

10.  20 point decline in University of Michigan consumer sentiment – the gauge of consumer confidence fell 2.2 points in May from April’s nine month high and is 3.2 points below the post-recession high hit last July.

Comments are closed.