September is hardly turning out to be the nightmare many investors predicted it would. The market continued its march higher last week, but should run into some more difficult bumps this week as it tries to navigate higher. The consumer, the primary missing piece of the recovery rally, will be front and center this week. Earnings will be a bit heavier this week. On the docket are some potentially market moving names. Adobe and Best Buy report Tuesday while Oracle reports Wednesday. The only other important report of the week will be details on the FedEx quarter. Of course, FedEx pre-announced last week, but we could hear more positive news from them in their earnings release and conference call on Thursday. More important, is the fact that we are entering the period during earnings seasons where many companies will pre-announce. Do not be shocked to hear more reports like the FedEx report – cautious optimism with regards to the upcoming earnings season.
Monday – A slow day. Janet Yellen and Jeff Lacker both speak. Will merger Monday make its reappearance?
Tuesday-A big big day for the consumer. The government will release retail sales for August. Ignore the headline figure. The important figure will be ex-autos and gasoline. Cash for clunkers will provide a near-term boost to the headline figure.
- ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
- Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
- Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
- Empire State Mfg Survey 8:30 AM ET
- Redbook 8:55 AM ET
- Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
Wednesday – Expectations remain for benign CPI reports in the near future. The more important news on Wednesday will be the industrial production and capacity utilization reports – both of which are expected to improve.
- Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET
- Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET
- EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
Thursday – Thursday will be another big test for the market. Claims are expected to rise to 555K while housing is expected to show further signs of stabilization.
- Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET
- Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET
- Philadelphia Fed Survey 10:00 AM ET
- EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET
Friday – A light news day. It is, however, a quadruple witching day. If you’re a volatility junkie this will be right up your alley.
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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