Thanks to reader Natasha for sending this my way. Feliz Zulauf has been right at just about every twist and turn of this bear market. He called for the rally and expects a 50% decline:
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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Russell Napier thinks there’ll be a rally after which s&p falls to 400. In this bloomberg article and a contemporaneous FT interview he guesses the rally will last 2 years. In December, he estimated that the rally would get to 1200 and then fall to 400, but didn’t estimate timing. He thinks the crash will be prompted by Treasuries going to 6%, and that will push investors from equities to debt.
https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKlTQb6af0jc&refer=home
Comstock estimates s&p will rally to 940 and then fall drastically.
FDO15
I hope they interview Zulauf again to see if he thinks this rally is done. Him and Marc Faber have been nailing this thing for a while, so I am definitely tracking what they say….
Larry
if you spend more than 10 hours assessing where the mkt will go this year, well you spent 9 hours too much……and to save time, just follow Zulauf….
the bottom line….the only line….is that people, corporations, countries are deleveraging, PLAIN AND SIMPLE
its a fact
its not short term
sure the mkt will make noise here and there….
BUT the trend is down….way down
do we break the 666 low in June? August? 2009? 2010?
when…NOT IF….is the question
when in doubt, just keep in mind….
the greatest bull mkt of all time was fueled by the baby boomer generation and the full funding of 401Ks….well…..they took a nice hit didn’t they……there is no “long term” for them anymore to recoup….and their prime earning years are behind them….they will flee equities, limit discretionary spending to ace bandages and medication….etc
keep in mind….
we are not a manufacturing economy…..nuff said on this one
keep in mind….
the days of the home equity ATM is over…..now how is jow blow gonna buy his new BMW every other year?….consumption is 70% of the economy….the consumption first derivative is all that matters….and its going the WRONG WAY
keep in mind….
housing prices are declining while interest rates are historic lows…..this easy money policy will eventually lead to rising rates….what does that do to housing affordability???
keep in mind…..
pensions are being eliminated….401k matches being reduced…..
keep in mind…..
state and municipal budgets are under water…and raising taxes……RAISING TAXES? during a recession? does that make sense? can that help consumption????
THINGS ARE FAR FAR WORSE THAN MANY CAN IMAGINE….with joe blow sticking his head in the sand…..
I REALLY FEEL SORRY FOR AMERICA.
bwhaaa
bwhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Yoyo rider
He has an upper limit of 40% on the rally. We are getting awfully close to that. I think a lot of other bears think so too myself included. I wonder if all of us in the same boat get whipsawed by a further upward movement.