Today’s personal income data caused a number of firms to upgrade their estimates for Q1 GDP. Here is a smattering of estimates (some old, some new) for Q1:
- Consensus: 2.8%
- Merrill Lynch: 3.0%
- Nomura Securities: 2.5%
- Goldman Sachs: 3.4%
- Macro Advisers: 3.5%
The Orcam Recession Index is (has been) telling a similar story – the risk of recession remains low (Via Orcam Investment Research):
Mr. Roche is the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Discipline Funds.Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory firm with a focus on helping people be more disciplined with their finances.
He is also the author of Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Understand About Money and Finance, Understanding the Modern Monetary System and Understanding Modern Portfolio Construction.
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